PTA Is Near Weak And Far Strong Pattern.

PTA factory profit is not good, the core of the follow-up operation depends on crude oil price. Considering that the price of crude oil is expected to rise, the operation of PTA far month contract is also expected to rise.

The PTA project of Sichuan energy investment and new Feng Ming has been put into operation smoothly, and its effective capacity reaches 47 million 960 thousand tons. The rapid increase in capacity resulted in a significant reduction in industry profits, and PTA processing fees dropped from 1187 yuan / ton in the first half to 335 yuan / ton. For the future market, the author analyzes as follows:

Increased supply pressure

In October, the domestic PTA output was 3 million 689 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 12.5% over the same period last year. In 1 - October, the total output was 36 million 875 thousand and 500 tons, a cumulative increase of 9.08%. The total output of PTA is expected to be 44 million 430 thousand tons in 2019, up 9.27% over the same period last year. This year's output is obviously higher than that of last year. There are two main reasons: first, the PTA production is very lucrative in the first half of the year, and some factories have overloaded production.

At present, the combined load of PTA is 85.48%. In the late period, the annual output of 1 million 200 thousand tons in Xinjiang and the annual output of 2 million 500 thousand tons in the four phase were planned to go into operation. When the new plant is put into operation, the PTA production capacity will increase by 15%. 2020 is the release of PTA production capacity, the supply pressure increases marginally.

Before the Spring Festival, the downstream consumption is weak.

Since the second half of 2016, polyester factories have improved significantly, and the industry boom has picked up. In 2017, the high prosperity of polyester industry has been well extended. It is characterized by high load and high profit. Driven by high profits, polyester production capacity was released in 2018 and 2019. However, after all, polyester is an intermediate link, and the final growth rate must be matched with the growth of terminal textiles. Over the past 3 years, the release rate of polyester production is significantly higher than that of chemical fiber yarns, so the polyester plant's ability to reduce the downstream premium has weakened, and the start-up load of polyester factories has gradually declined. As of December 20th, the start-up load of polyester plant was 86.05%, and the profits of POY, DTY and FDY were -263 yuan / ton, -338 yuan / ton and -263 yuan / ton respectively.

The Spring Festival came earlier this year. At present, orders for the terminal weaving mills are coming to an end. The load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to 68%, and the late spring and weaving factories will also be closed down. The production plan for polyester factories has come out one after another. The polyester filament plant maintenance plan involves 6 million 890 thousand tons of capacity, including 2 million 650 thousand tons in December, accounting for 38.46% of the total production capacity. The production reduction is concentrated during the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the shutdown devices will resume production.

Processing fees are low.

At present, PTA processing fee is 350 yuan / ton, PX-N price difference is 263 dollars / ton, PTA and PX factories are in a small profit or even a loss. PTA processing costs are often affected by factors such as device scale, technology and investment cost. They are mainly divided into three categories: one is a device with a scale of less than 1 million tons, and the processing cost is between 700 and 900 yuan / ton; the first is a device of 1 million to 1 million 500 thousand tons, most of which are put into operation after 2010, and the processing cost is 600 to 700 yuan / ton. Such as Yisheng, Hengli, new Feng Ming and other devices, their processing costs have been relatively low, but now it is also in a state of micro deficit. Later, crude oil prices determine the value level of PTA. The OPEC+'s deeper cuts will help restore the balance of supply and demand, and the US output growth is expected to slow, and crude oil prices may slow up.

To sum up, despite the oversupply of pressure to suppress processing profits, but the current position, PTA factory profitability is poor, the focus of follow-up operation depends on the price of crude oil. Considering that the price of crude oil is expected to rise, the focus of the far moon contract is also expected to rise. On the operation, sell arbitrage arbitrage.