Review Of Nylon Market In 2019: Price Imbalance Between Supply And Demand

In 2019, domestic nylon production capacity expansion, domestic supply and demand imbalance, terminal demand weakness, raw material terminal production increased, domestic production cost reduced, nylon filament yarn prices fell sharply.

According to the price statistics of business associations, as of December 24th, the Jiangsu nylon filament DTY reported 16766 yuan / ton, down 4367 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, down 20.66%, and the price of nylon POY was 14280 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year, it fell 4120 yuan / ton, or 22.39%, and the price of nylon FDY was 18000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year, it dropped 4150 yuan / ton, or 18.74%. Nylon prices have hit a new low since September 2016.

In the middle of 1-4, at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, the price of raw materials in the upper part of the nylon plant was stopped and the price of raw materials increased, but the order of nylon was not good, production and sales were basically flat, and the pressure of price rise was still under pressure. Some manufacturers are not optimistic about the market outlook this year. They have emptied their stocks before the fall period, and just need to purchase.

In the 4-6 month, crude oil moved towards the nylon chain, and trump suppressed oil prices, claiming that oil prices were too high. From late April to the middle of June, crude oil fell sharply, and the rings of nylon industry chain were shot. At this time, the cost support is insufficient. At this time, orders are also in vain.

In July, the OPEC meeting provided a fulcrum for the rise of crude oil prices. Crude oil trend was twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend. Raw materials will rebound, nylon also ushered in a short period of rising. In October, trade between China and the United States may be further tense, aggravating the market concerns, coupled with the sharp rise and fall of crude oil in mid September, and further damage to production. At the end of the year, the pressure of outgoing warehouse is increasing, and the prices of raw materials and nylon are dropping to seek orders.

In 2019, the textile industry overall declined, and textile prices generally declined. According to the statistics of business data, the price of textile raw materials decreased by 7.09%-28.77% in this year, and the decline of nylon 22.39% was second in the 22.39% place.

(incomplete statistics)

According to relevant statistics, in 2019 (1-10 months), domestic nylon fiber output was 3 million 236 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 14.4% over the same period last year. In 1-7, the import volume of China's polyamide fiber was 65.36 kiloton, down 26.07% compared with the same period last year, and the export volume was 137.04 kiloton, down 4.8% from the same period last year, and both imports and exports declined. In the first half of the year, the top two imported nylon were Taiwan and Vietnam, and the United States ranked sixth. However, the terminal orders have contracted, and with the increase of capacity, the nylon sales market is facing challenges.

From the price chart of PA6 and nylon, the price trend is basically the same and overall downward adjustment. As can be seen from the graph, the price trajectories of the two markets deviated considerably in the 9-10 month. Nylon prices rose slightly in mid September, followed by a smooth run, and opened a down mode in mid October. PA6 price rise time is earlier than nylon, and the rise is bigger. Analysis of its causes, in September, a sudden news that Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was attacked, short time production damage, resulting in the rise in crude oil prices, chemical products also rose. PA6 raw material costs rise and prices rise. Nylon orders did not respond to the shorter stage drama, and filament prices were more stable.

From the chart of the price of cyclohexanone and nylon POY, the trend of cyclohexanone is twists and turns, and the correlation between nylon and cyclohexanone is relatively small. The trend of crude oil price is the effect on the production cost of cyclohexanone. The upstream capacity of nylon is increasing, the supply is adequate, the downstream orders are generally reacted, manufacturers are watching carefully, and there are more opportunities to choose raw materials. On the other hand, the increase in production capacity of nylon, the limited consumption of terminal, and the oversupply led to the passive sales market.

Business analysts believe that the price of nylon in 2019 has entered a downhill stage. On the one hand, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has reduced the production cost of chemical products and the cost of nylon has been lost. On the other hand, the pattern of world trade is disrupted and reorganized, and the contradiction between the increase of domestic nylon production capacity and the capacity of downstream consumption is not clear. In contrast, upgrading the domestic industry chain can reduce production costs, make the nylon industry more mature and enhance the ability to resist external shocks. At the end of the year, the factory went back to the inventory fund and ran the nylon low. Sino US trade relations have been developing well and the market is looking forward. It is expected that the price of nylon will be warmer in 2020.