In 2020, Can The Average Price Of Polyester Staple And Viscose Staple Market Be "Joined"?

December 2019 is an unusual month for polyester staple. At the beginning of the month, the price of polyester staple fiber was down. After a little effort, the rocket rose rapidly, and this year's adversity brother viscose staple fiber is still on the downhill road.

One, to meet?

Average price trend of viscose / polyester staple market in 2019

In the past 5 years, polyester staple fiber has the highest price in September 2018, reaching 11470 yuan / ton, and viscose staple fiber is constantly refreshing its lowest record. Can the price of the two meet for the first time?

Average price trend of PET staple market in recent three months (2019.9.20 - 2019.12.20)

Average price trend of viscose staple market in recent three months (2019.9.20 - 2019.12.20)

Two, why the price of viscose broke down repeatedly?

Polyester and viscose staple fibers are not well received by the market environment and Sino US trade this year. At the end of the year, they also face the advantages of easing Sino US relations and storing raw materials downstream. But why are they running counter?

1. raw materials are increased or reduced.

The good results of the Sino US negotiations this month and the decision of the OPEC meeting to deepen the production reduction made the international oil price rise to a new high of three months, and the trend of polyester staple prices followed closely with crude oil, showing a slight increase in the short term.

Cotton pulp prices continue to fall, and the supply of viscose plants is also oversupplied.

Average price chart of cotton pulp Market

2. purchasing habits vary.

Since the middle of this year, the sales policy of viscose staple has begun to be flexible. For most high quality direct customers, it can choose to pay with the goods, and the yarn companies do not need a large amount of capital. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, the impact of the viscose staple on the receivables collection progress of the spinning enterprises on the purchase of viscose staple fiber is relatively limited, but if there is advance advance, it may limit the strength of the yarn enterprises to replenish them.

The direct selling customers of polyester staple require payment in full before delivery, and it is more difficult to find relevant companies before the Spring Festival. Therefore, the recovery of accounts receivable in pre service yarn enterprises also affects the purchasing power of polyester staple fibers to a certain extent, but the market of polyester staple fiber is much more than credit sale.

3. yarn spinning cost low

Downstream direct cash flow situation, the situation of pure polyester yarn is obviously superior to that of cotton yarn. According to the current cash flow of pure polyester yarn, the price of polyester staple fiber is basically acceptable at present. With regard to the price of raw cotton yarn such as ring, air current and even vortex spinning, if the price of viscose staple fiber is accounted for by 10000 yuan / ton, the cost of cotton yarn spinning is limited. If we want to ensure that the yarn is stable, a small profit will be maintained, and the yarn business will continue or continue to suppress the price of viscose staple fiber.

4. let the price be small.

Viscose staple in this year's market prices have repeatedly chosen to change the price, this week this wave of strength even more, although the industry gross profit loss is serious, but viscose staple fiber prices are still refreshing the historical low again and again. When polyester staple is "slightly deficient", it always wants to follow up with PTA or crude oil and other futures, instead of making concessions. Facing the downstream replenishment before the Spring Festival, polyester staple fiber is more likely to be selected for proper maintenance during the Spring Festival instead of a big price promotion. Even during the short term, the short term turnover will be driven by frequent price hike.

Although the viscose staple fiber does not need to worry about the recovery of the accounts after a while, it needs to consider the current cost of cotton spinning and the price of viscose staple. Therefore, viscose staple fiber or the psychological expectation of the latter can lead to a number of transactions before the festival.

On the one hand, PET staple keeps cash trading, on the other hand, it has a very stable price. If it stimulates the large amount of stock before the Spring Festival, there is another way to make use of the market's "buying up or not buying down" mentality to create a strong market expectation even after the Spring Festival. However, the market has long been silenced in the anticipation of mass production of polyester raw materials, so it is difficult to reverse the public psychological expectation. Therefore, it is expected that before the Spring Festival, the overall stocking effort of the polyester staple fiber is still not active, and the main purpose is to maintain multi frequency and small batch purchase.