The New Plant Will Soon Begin To Dominate The PTA Market.

Since October, the supply side of the PTA market has constantly come to the news of overhaul and short stop. This news is pouring into a clear spring for the PTA market that is enveloped in the low pressure mode for the fourth quarter, making the four quarter start well.


As of October 14th, the PTA market price was 5130 yuan / ton, down 34.23% from the same period last year, and PTA processing fee is 16.18% higher than that of the same period last year. Since entering the fourth quarter, PTA manufacturers have started rotating annual inspection. Hengli petrochemical and Honggang Petrochemical have stopped maintenance. Jiangyin Han bang and Ya Dong Petrochemical have also announced maintenance time. The market mentality has been slightly warmer. In addition, there are more temporary short stop devices in recent years. Such as Yi Sheng Dahua, Peng Wei petrochemical, Ya Dong petrochemical, Sichuan Shengda and so on, the concentration of short stop devices has further boosted market confidence. But in 2019, the new production capacity of PTA in the fourth quarter is expected to be near. The market sentiment is still unstable. The 2 million 200 thousand seasons of new Feng Ming, 2 million 500 thousand tons of Hengli petrochemical, and the 1 million 200 thousand tons of Xinjiang Zhongtai Kun Yu in the four quarter are the focus of the market. Although 6 million 500 thousand tons of PTA installations have not been checked annually, the output of several sets of devices is not as high as that of the two new PTA installations. From the perspective of supply and demand in October, the supply and demand of PTA market is relatively tight before the new capacity is put into operation, but if the new Feng Ming device is opened, there will be an oversupply situation in the market.

Naphtha cracking spreads increase costs and support


At present, the cost side support of PTA is relatively strong, and the details of trade negotiations need to be implemented. The market's worries about the prospects of the economy and crude oil demand remain, and Russia has not clearly stated whether it supports further production cuts, and international oil prices have fallen. But for the direct impact of PX, naphtha cracking spreads have been rising since September, rising from $22 to $105. Naphtha prices are significantly stronger than crude oil, and the rise in naphtha cracking spreads alleviates the impact of falling crude oil.

Weaving production and marketing is slightly better than that of previous manufacturers.

In terms of downstream polyester, Kim Gu has passed. Is silver ten still expected? I am afraid that many industries are concerned about the market. In recent years, the polyester market is experiencing cash flow losses due to cost changes and the reduction in national day prices. As a result, the price of polyester products has increased slightly due to cost requirements, and the actual business negotiations and orders are generally in general. In terms of terminal grey cloth, weaving inventory is currently around 40 days, and some products orders have improved. The operating rate is 7-8 per cent. As the temperature goes down, some autumn and winter products are better in production and marketing than before. Although this year's Kim Gu peak season is not as good as possible, in October, with the order of double eleven and Christmas, orders are still expected, and the confidence of the grey fabric manufacturers is relatively stable.

In the short term, if we do not join the new investment device, we will see that in the short term, from the perspective of supply and demand in October, the PTA market is more optimistic, the external trade trade is good, the cost and maintenance equipment support, the downstream polyester load is about 89%, the demand is stable, but the terminal grey fabric inventory is still showing pressure, and the PTA spot circulation is more smooth, the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, PTA price or continue to maintain the weak shock pattern, but there is limited space to explore.