Upstream "Dongfeng", Polyester Industry Chain "Cool" Will Be Dispersed?

Recently, US Secretary of state Pompeio will announce that from May 2nd, the United States will no longer grant sanctions to 8 existing Iran crude oil economies.

Oil prices rose sharply, and market panic spread rapidly. Brent futures broke through 74 U.S. dollars / barrel in early trading.

Oil prices rose more than 1% in early trading on Monday, the highest since November 2018, and US crude oil futures rose more than $64.80 a barrel since November 2018, hitting 64.86 US dollars, up 1.3% from the previous settlement price.

After constant pressure on Iran, Iran failed to yield and did not negotiate a concession stance in the nuclear agreement, which made Trump very angry.

Therefore, the United States wants to strike the final blow by completely blocking the way of Iran's oil exports with a view to new geographical gains.

But the risk is that if the output of Saudi Arabia is to balance the gap of the market, Iran's counteraction may be "burning all over the world". The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz can be a killer of Iran.

Though not hit by the United States, it is enough to trigger a chain reaction.

Breaking supply has become a cruel reality, and oil price has become a runaway horse.

The cost side is now the biggest support factor for polyester raw materials. According to industry experts, after the continuous fermentation of geopolitical factors, crude oil may have the last wave of pulse market. Instead, the polyester market has seen a sharp fall in the polyester Market in recent polyester market. Can the international oil price rebound strongly support the rebound of polyester raw materials?

Is it possible to inject a "strong heart" into the raw market?

With the PX launch plan this year and the chain effect of PTA's new devices, the market expects top-down profit pfer.

Logically, this idea should be able to be verified this year.

But in the near future, we believe that the support force of PX's profit margin has weakened.

This year, the PX plant is expected to be put into operation.

From the price point of view, the price of PX has fallen by about US $80-100 per ton in one month.

From the cost calculation, the price of PX9 paper is 1000 USD / ton, and the processing fee of TA futures and spot is at the high level of 1100-1300 yuan / ton.

Looking back on the profit pfer situation after PX put into operation over the past years, referring to the most similar distribution of the upstream and downstream installations in 2009, we found that letting profits is a continuous process, and also requires the active cooperation of polyester demand side.

Standing at the current time node, as the price of this round of PX has fallen, the PX-TA processing fee has expanded 600 yuan / ton, and the subsequent pfer speed may slow down.

Finally, the release of PX's new capacity benefits from the Dachang refining and chemical integration plant.

But careful analysis of Dachang financial report is not difficult to find that in three years, because the need to balance the financial and depreciation costs, manufacturers do not rule out the adoption of PX insured behavior.

Therefore, in the short term, the probability of PX price drop is low. In addition, from the cost side of PX, the recent rise in crude oil prices and PX prices in the short term will bring vitality.

Due to the profit pmission from the cost side, tax reduction and PTA's overall healthier industrial chain, PTA processing fees have rebounded considerably.

As of April 17th, the spot processing fee was about 1200 yuan / ton.

During this period, it was obvious that the overhaul strategy had been adjusted several times due to high processing fees and profits.

The original planned maintenance failed to proceed on schedule, and the factory chose to continue production.

Of course, there are many sudden failures and short stops.

But overall, this situation reflects the temptation of big factories to change the pace of production before it is tempted by such a high profit.

The latest data show that the current PTA installation load is maintained at 86.6%, which is significantly higher than that of 76.86% in the same period of 18, and the average monthly load of 3 is also running at 97.7%.

From the perspective of inventory, according to the relevant data, in March, domestic PTA slightly accumulated about 25 thousand tons.

Although demand orders are guaranteed for a time, we can hardly see the continuity of the ratio of Treasury to sales.

At the same time, the rise in processing fee indicates that the subsequent load is hard to fall, and the supply pressure may cause pressure on the price. It is necessary to keep track of the start-up and downtime of the device.

In the short term, although supply and demand are weak, short-term volatility will be the main reason for the short-term surge in oil prices.

The Spring Festival effect superimposed the good news of Sino US trade friction to jointly promote the increase of spinning and clothing orders in the past two months, but the export of the weaving industry in the two quarter can continue to wait for time to verify.

It can be said that the current stock pressure of polyester has shifted to the terminal.

From the statistical data, the overall stock of the polyester market is concentrated for 14-22 days now. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are concentrated in 5-10 days, FDY stocks are close to 11-16 days, while DTY stocks are about 22-28 days, which belong to a relatively reasonable inventory level.

At the same time, polyester manufacturers' profit performance has improved, and the profit margins of all products are at the highest level in the year. Among them, FDY has the best profit margin, while POY is the largest profit growth in the near term.

Data calculation, the current FDY150D profit space at 830 yuan / ton, up 262 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year; POY profit growth is relatively large, the profit per ton has risen to 716 yuan, the year-on-year increase is also more obvious; the same is true of DTY150D, compared with last month, the profit space has increased to 550 yuan / ton.

However, after spinning fabric replenishment period, the order pressure may be formed for later polyester industry chain.

In the past month, the growth rate of downstream orders has been limited, especially in the middle and low end market, with fierce competition in price, warp knitting, and poor sales of knitting.

Fabric market peak season is not prosperous, market procurement level has not improved much, the overall turnover is not as good as the same period last year; in addition, the market competition of conventional chemical fiber products is fierce, manufacturers fail to perform well, the market boom is hard to pick up, and there is a lack of hot products.

Some of them are lowering their prices for shipment.

Recently, the new market is still slow, some manufacturers said that after April, there was no order to do, and the stock market continued to rise. Now there is about 36-37 days in Shengze's billet storage, which is more than 10 days higher than the same period last year.

According to the total retail sales data, we believe that the terminal market can hardly be broken.

On the whole, there is limited space for market supply to continue to be compressed, but demand is weak.

From the crude oil side, before the formal announcement of the United States, the problem of exemptions will be swayed around the market, and the mood of the market will fluctuate. This will aggravate the fluctuation of polyester raw materials and will also affect the market of polyester market.