The "Discount" Polyester Filament Market Is Still Rising Moderately During The Peak Season.

Recently, the value added tax of manufacturing industry has been lowered, and the commodity market has shown a strong overall performance.

On the other hand, the dynamic increase of PTA overhaul has promoted the strong rise of futures and spot prices.

At the same time, MEG prices are rising synchronously.

The upstream raw materials rose sharply, effectively stimulating the enthusiasm of purchasing bombs and weaving factories. The market of polyester filament has shown signs of a sharp rebound. Sheng Hong, Heng Li, Tong Kun, new Feng Ming and other mainstream enterprises generally rose.

At the same time, the market production and sales data warmer, the average production and sales hit a level of near 200%.

However, the market continued to rally and began to encounter downstream resistance, or the market was subject to certain restrictions.

For textile people, March is a time of opportunity.

Recently, the rising trend of raw material, artificial rise, dye up, grey cloth and other industrial chains began to emerge. It seems that the busy season has beckoned with everyone, but the fabric market from the trade outlet is not so hot.

From the perspective of the whole industry chain, the printing and dyeing end is located in the middle and lower reaches, and its market quality can directly reflect whether the fabric trade end is smooth, and whether the "golden three" small peak season can come smoothly, we can know a little from the printing and dyeing end.

It is not the hot spot of last March, but the situation of dyeing factory is very heavy.

In March last year, the printing and dyeing market could be said to be ignited, and the gray cloth burst warehouse, and the dyeing factory queued for goods. The delivery time was generally about 20-30 days, but this season is quite different.

A dyeing factory revealed that the atmosphere of the peak season was not felt at present. Although the amount of orders received in the recent period was larger than that of last week, the atmosphere was obviously not as good as last year.

"In previous years, our factory has to rush to order more than 15 days, but this year's equipment is not fully opened, and generally can be shipped in about 10 days, which makes me very anxious."

Lu, chief executive of Oxford textile company, also said that the delivery date is about 15 days, compared with the same period last year.

According to the survey, at present, the printing and dyeing Market in Shengze and Ping Wang area in Wujiang is still at a stable stage. The delivery period is generally 10-15 days, and there is no "hot" situation. Some printing and dyeing factories are not yet full, and the production workshop is not running at full capacity.

Of course, some of the dyeing factories have begun to improve, Huang General of the dyeing mill, said: "at present, the order is acceptable. Compared with last week, the order volume has been enlarged by 10%-15%, mainly in T400, imitation memory, high density polyester Taff, etc."

Ming Tak printing and dyeing Wang also said that the current flat cylinder products are busy, and the queuing cycle is also elongated, about a month or so.

In the dyeing factories visited, only less than 3 of the dyeing factories have increased the dye fee. Most dyeing factories still indicate that although the cost is rising, the current market does not have the driving force of price increase, and the market competition is more intense, especially the low-end products.

"Later prices will not rise, mainly depends on the market."

Relevant staff of Ping Wang bleaching and dyeing factory said.

In fact, the two most important factors affecting the cost of dyeing are cost and demand. If the downstream demand is not synchronized, the price can hardly be improved.

Last year, the textile industry "hot and cold days" last year, the first three quarters of the market heat in recent years, a new high in recent years, the fourth quarter of the market has been sharply downward, the peak season has become the pain of many textile workers, resulting in many people's expectations for the aftermarket printing and dyeing is poor, the downstream customers significantly reduced the amount of preparation, "weak demand, obviously not as good as last year" became the printing and dyeing Market in the first quarter of the pcript, but also suppressed the dye factory's upward intention to dye fees.

Today, in the first half of the golden three silver four, many manufacturers have expressed concern about the future market.

Huang Sheng Lin's Huang said, "at present, there is no sign of the peak season. If the market is good, the dyed fabric will be very clear.

The most important factor this year is demand. "

Ding Zong of Yuan Peng textile said: "the peak season is not, the small peak season should be coming, and environmental protection will become the key to the industry, because the environmental policy is becoming more and more strict, the processing fee is higher and higher, and the estimation of dye fee will rise later."

Wanrong's printing and dyeing Xiao also mentioned environmental protection, "now the order is not fully launched, Kim three has not yet arrived, then the environmental impact, customer demand will have a great effect on the market, we need to prepare for the relevant market response."

Although there are "discount" in the peak season, polyester filament will continue to rise.

Nowadays, orders in printing and dyeing Market are steadily rising. The atmosphere can only be said to be bad or bad. Everyone is holding a "one step, one look" mentality.

Generally speaking, it is a normal phenomenon that the rise in the peak season and the fall in the off-season are adjusted by the factors such as the product structure, the market change and the contradiction between supply and demand.

And for the weaving Market in March, it is still well expected, so the market price of polyester filament will increase moderately in the next period.

The main basis for making this judgement is as follows:

First, the international oil price rate is rising, and the current trend of shocks is continuing.

The bottom support provided by the production reduction still exists, and the pressure of economic downturn can never break the underlying support.

With the easing of monetary policy by major central banks, concerns about the economic downturn are gradually being digested by the market.

On the contrary, with the announcement of follow up OPEC monthly report, the reduction of production is expected to continue, and supply reduction will boost oil prices.

In addition, the drop in crude oil output in Venezuela and Iran also boosted oil prices.

In short, in the current stage, the reduction of output to oil prices is obviously more effective than demand weakness.

Second, polyester raw materials market is still bullish.

PTA, polyester high storage pressure gradually eased, easing the drag on PTA demand, but under Zhou Huabin and Liwan device restart expectations, PTA supply will rise again, and polyester cash flow performance under pressure, PTA is expected to rise or gradually slow down.

PTA is expected to be adjusted around 6600-6800 yuan / ton.

On the MEG side, the pressure on the stacking of polyester finished products is relieved during the delivery period, and the market mentality has been boosted. However, the pressure on port inventory has not been substantially alleviated, and the market is under pressure or will be oscillating between 5250-5450 yuan / ton.

Third, the supply and demand of polyester filament market will be rebalanced.

After the recent concentrated volume trading, the overall inventory level of the industry declined.

As of Thursday, the mainstream stocks of polyester POY and FDY were 10-20 days, individual higher 25-30 days, individual lower 5-10 days, polyester DTY mainstream stocks 15-25 days, individual higher 25 days above the top level, individual 7-10 days lower.

At the same time, the terminal weaving rate has generally recovered.

As of Thursday, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms comprehensive boot rate near 84%, an increase of 9 percentage points.

Specific to the production base, Shengze water loom operation rate of 80%-90%, Changxin water loom operating rate of 90% near the level, Shaw round machine operating rate of 80% near the level.

In terms of warp knitting, the overall operating rate of Haining is 70%-90%, and the overall operating rate of Changshu is 70%-90%.

To sum up, at the present stage, compared with weak demand, the reduction of output to the international oil price is obviously more effective.

Moreover, after this week's concentrated volume trading, the stock level of polyester filament industry has generally declined, which is conducive to the operation of the market. Therefore, although the enthusiasm of the downstream market has dropped, it is expected that the latter market will form a steady upward trend after March.