Smooth Spanmission Of Industrial Chain, PTA Hit The High Point In The Year?

Last week, PTA rushed to the new high of 6848 yuan / ton during the year. After that, it began to turn weak in the macro face and the downward trend of the commodity resonance, and the weekly rate rose. As of this Tuesday, PTA has been in a trend of turbulence. In late March, PTA is expected to have more maintenance facilities, and polyester start up near 86.71%. The demand for PTA is stable. But after last week's demand for polyester production and sales overdraft, polyester production and sales were down compared with last week.

Will PTA do anything in such a short time?

PTA cost side support is still acceptable.

The number of ADP employment released by the United States in February was lower than expected, and the trade deficit in December was also less than expected. Meanwhile, the ECB data is expected to be lowered until inflation expectations for 2021.

The total output of the 14 OPEC oil producing countries in February decreased by 560 thousand barrels per day to 30 million 500 thousand barrels per day, and the number of active drilling in the US decreased. OPEC and its allies will firmly push ahead with the production reduction operation. The gasoline stocks in the US crude oil refining industry have been reduced, and Sino US trade negotiations have made good progress. Trump announced that it had postponed the increase in tariffs on goods imported from China to the US.

On the other hand, the largest oil field in Libya has been restarted. In February, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index fell. The latest US sales of new homes in December and ISM's non manufacturing PMI data were higher than expected, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased. Therefore, a comprehensive view is expected that short-term international oil prices or a narrow increase will be boosted by the positive effects of crude oil. It is expected that the PX market will rise in the short term and PTA cost side support will be acceptable.

Device failure or increased load loss

In terms of equipment, the 1 million 100 thousand ton / year PTA unit of HHF began to restart in March 6th, and the other 1 million 100 thousand tons / year unit began to restart in March 7th, and it is running normally. Fujian Jialong 600 thousand tons / year PTA plant was restarted in March 6th.

Hua Bin Petrochemical 1 million 400 thousand tons / year PTA device restarted, but Yanda Grand 3 million 750 thousand tons / year PTA plant started down to 50% and may last for a week. In March, the PTA device increased its accidental failure or load drop. Later, we paid attention to whether the PTA device of Hengli petrochemical company was overhauled in late March.

Downstream production and marketing began to improve

After entering March, the polyester plant started to resume. As of last week, five polyester load was 88.5%, slightly lower than our previous expectations, but also close to the peak season start. Production and sales of polyester products quickly recovered, and production and sales reached 200% last Sunday.

POY had a cash flow deficit, and after a week's early inventory, the pressure was raised and the cash flow turned into a profit. As of last Friday, the cash flow of polyester POY150/48, FDY150/96 and DTY150/48 low bombs was 250.1 yuan / ton, 415.1 yuan / ton, 215 yuan / ton respectively. In terms of polyester and short, the cash flow was between 300 and 400 yuan / ton, and the cash flow in the bottle trade was 100 to 150 yuan / ton, and the export cash flow was 200 yuan / ton. This also means that the overall cash flow situation of polyester terminal is relatively good.

At the same time, the terminal construction also returned to the high level in the year. The loom in the south of the Yangtze River started to reach 75%, and the weaving inventory had dropped to 20 days. In the case of "gold three silver four" coming, raw materials will rise, and some manufacturers will still have the desire to replenishment.

On the whole, cost support is enhanced, downstream cash flow is good, and industrial chain price spanmission is more smooth. In the lower reaches of the current state of buying or selling, the PTA uplink space is gradually open, especially the 1905 contract. 1909 the impact of new PX supply shocks on PTA costs is relatively weak. Therefore, we think that the main idea of maintaining more than 1905 contracts in March and April is to maintain the operation.