Polyester Companies Are Shutting Down, And Glycol Demand On The Eve Of The Spring Festival Is Not Optimistic.

In the near future, the impact of the start up load of coal to ethylene glycol dropped to 54.67%, the domestic MEG comprehensive plant load fell to 72.57%, the downstream production and sales rate has dropped, but it is still at a relatively high level in the recent period. By the middle of January, the downstream polyester enterprises began to stop production. According to the planned arrangement, there were 740 thousand tons of capacity parking yesterday. In the later stage, there will be nearly 3 million tons of capacity parking. The demand for ethylene glycol is not optimistic on the eve of the Spring Festival.


Ethylene prices in Asia remain stable and cost side support stabilizes for the time being. The results of the Sino US trade consultation have not yet been published, and the market recognizes that Sino US trade frictions may last for a long time. It is expected that ethylene glycol will run weak in the near future.


The upstream crude oil rose by nearly 8% for 2 weeks.


In January 11th, international crude oil prices will ensure steady gains for the second consecutive week.


Before the financial market was boosted, China and the US are expected to quickly resolve trade disputes, and the crude oil production cuts led by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began to cut supply. ICE Brent crude and NYMEX crude oil rose sharply by nearly 8.8% a week and more than 7% a week, which is expected to be roughly the same as last week.


On Friday (January 11th), international crude oil prices will ensure steady gains for the second consecutive week. Before the financial market was boosted, China and the US are expected to quickly resolve trade disputes, and the crude oil production cuts led by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began to cut supply.


Spring Festival is drawing near, demand is not optimistic.


Polyester has also been rising at the end of the raw material and maintained at a high level. However, near the Spring Festival, polyester manufacturers are still mainly going to the warehouse, and their price intentions are not strong. With the advent of polyester production reduction stage, the demand has dropped, and the production and sales of the downstream polyester industry has picked up slowly. Recently, the polyester factory has been promoting the sale price, POY150D is around 8150 yuan / ton, the price of FDY150D is near 9100 yuan / ton, and the price of DTY150D is 10150 yuan / ton.


The price of polyester staple fiber market in China is running smoothly, the downstream mentality is cautious, and procurement is mainly based on rigid replenishment. MEG downstream polyester bottle and PET chip market negotiated at 8000-8150 yuan / ton and 7650-7700 yuan / ton respectively, the price is short-term stability.


In the short term, the trend of low volatility is showing.


The port port of East China's main port area has an inventory of about 834 thousand tons, an increase in the ring ratio. It is expected that the East China port will arrive at about 188 thousand tons of cargo in the short term, of which 102 thousand tons are expected to arrive in Zhangjiagang. At present, the domestic ethylene glycol unit operation rate is 81%, the coal glycol plant operation rate is 61%, the domestic ethylene glycol supply is stable, the port inventory has rebounded, the downstream polyester plant maintenance has been gradually started, the supply and demand is still weak, and the demand for light is expected to suppress the market, and the spot price of ethylene glycol shows a narrow arrangement.


Technically, the EG1906 contract fell slightly, the price around the 50100 yuan / ton line to start finishing, the upper 5200 yuan / ton regional pressure, the short term showing low volatility trend.


In the medium term, the winter is still the same.


In the first quarter of 2019, driven by the possible upward trend of oil prices and the easing of trade wars, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be supported or even boosted. However, because the oil price rises may be relatively limited, the conduction effect is not very smooth at this stage, so the price of ethylene glycol may increase slightly, which can only bring short-term opportunities. In the second half of this year, the downward pressure on oil prices is bigger, and the domestic glycol project is put into operation, and the supply side may increase substantially.


And with the domestic PX production capacity, the price of the whole industry chain including ethylene glycol has been suppressed. Even if the trade war is easing up, the recovery of demand will be difficult to hedge the decline of ethylene glycol prices.