In 2017, China'S Foreign Trade Is Likely To Rise And Recover.

With the global economic slowdown after the financial crisis and the adjustment of the international market, China's foreign trade began to slow down during the "12th Five-Year" period, and has declined for two consecutive years in 2015 and 2016.

Whether the uncertainty brought by Trump's new deal will make China's foreign trade worse in 2017? Li Jian, a researcher at the Foreign Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, responded in dialogue with sina finance. Trump's new deal and European election may have an impact on China's export industry, and 2017 China.

On the whole, it will also face difficult and complicated situations, but there are many bright spots for growth, and the possibility of stabilization and recovery is also great.

As for the recent withdrawal of foreign investment by the media, Li Jian believes that a small part of foreign capital withdrawal is a normal phenomenon, which is related to the adjustment of China's industrial structure.

China's investment environment may be more stable than some big countries.

Political and economic stability will not result in large scale withdrawal of foreign capital.

In addition, he said that although China's foreign exchange reserves have declined, there is no possibility of a reduction in the cliffs in a reasonable range.

In Li Jian's view, although China's foreign trade is facing a grim external situation, if the global economy can continue to recover and gradually enter a new round of growth cycle, China's foreign trade is likely to rebound steadily this year, and there is hope for growth in the next few years of 13th Five-Year.

There are many bright spots in the growth of China's foreign trade.

Li Jian analyzed, first, the great changes in the commodity structure. In the past, Chinese commodities were cheaper, labor-intensive, low-end products, and they were all large commodities in supermarkets. After the adjustment of industrial structure, the commodities exported by China now begin to move towards high-end and enter foreign brand shops.

The large scale complete sets of equipment that reflect our new advantages, products with certain technological R & D content,

And so on.

We also began working with US aircraft manufacturing to enter their high-end industrial chain and help them process some high value-added components.

The two is the obvious change in the way of trade. In the past, processing trade accounted for 60% of the total, while general trade and other trade accounted for 40%.

Now, on the contrary, processing trade has dropped to 36%~37% per cent, and general trade is more than 50%, and there are other ways of trading.

Our country has changed from earning only processing fees to earning the value of processing and assembling, and self marketing, which has expanded the profit space.

Three, the main export force is from foreign-funded enterprises to private enterprises.

The proportion of foreign-funded enterprises in our foreign trade has been declining. At present, private enterprises and state-owned enterprises account for over 60% of the total export volume, and the trend of this structural change is still continuing.

The four is that the import and export of coastal foreign trade province is the first to stabilize. In the first few years, the coastal foreign trade took the lead, and now their decline has been lower than that of the whole country.

Because their adjustment is in the front, and the effect is also the first to show.

Therefore, Li Jian is optimistic about China's foreign trade development prospects.

Compared with developed countries, our R & D level and service level are constantly improving and forming new advantages.

Although our traditional commodity advantages have gradually weakened, the new advantages of China's foreign trade still have great room to play in the market with higher added value.

In terms of investment environment, Li Jian analyzed that the current investment environment in China is more stable than that in the United States in terms of opening up prospects.

The introduction of Trump's new deal has added many uncertainties to its economic environment. The effect of the new deal has not yet been known, and it also makes the enterprise uneasy.

China is very different. In recent years, China has always opened its doors to encourage foreign investment to enter the country, giving preferential treatment to foreign investors in policy areas, and some foreign investors have gone out, and more foreign investors have come in.

At present, many agencies predict that China's foreign exchange reserves will further decline in 2017.

China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM) 2017 spring forecast report released by the center for macroeconomic research of Xiamen University predicts that China's foreign exchange reserves may further fall to 2 trillion and 880 billion US dollars this year.

Li Jian believed that

The decline is related to exchange rate changes and people's psychological expectations.

In the past few years, the renminbi has been very strong. The previous period of RMB has depreciated in a certain range. This is the result of the appreciation of the US dollar, which has caused the psychological expectation of RMB devaluation. However, the decline of this foreign exchange reserve is only a slight adjustment, rather than a cliff type fall.

In addition, in Li Jian's view, the decline in foreign exchange reserves caused by people's psychological expectations is a temporary and phased fluctuation.

"China's foreign exchange reserves are still in a reasonable range. The large scale of reserves in previous years is unreasonable in the economy, and the appropriate reduction in foreign exchange reserves is beneficial to China."

At present, the foreign exchange reserves of nearly $three trillion are still at a very safe level, and from the previous four trillion to three trillion now, we must be glad to see that.

The analysis shows that first, people have not lost confidence in the fundamentals of China's economy.

Second, China's GDP still keeps 6.7% growth, the total economic volume is 74 trillion and 400 billion yuan, and the consumption of the people (44.690, -0.16, -0.36%) is still very strong.

Third, our infrastructure investment has also maintained steady growth.

Fourth, import and export in 2017 would be better if there were no major accidents than in 2015 and 2016.

Therefore, foreign exchange reserves are only reasonable fluctuations, and there will be no cliff fall.

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