There Is A Long Term Upward Effect Of New Cotton Price Reduction And Cotton Increase.

Some time ago, since the new cotton market has been showing the rise of domestic cotton and the international cotton price has dropped, especially the India cotton has a larger decline, the difference between the inside and outside cotton prices has expanded again, the imported yarn has once again squeezed the domestic yarn price, the sales of cotton yarn is difficult, the price is low, and the price is depressed, and the cotton price rise is suppressed.

Domestic and foreign futures rebounded slightly.

The national cotton price B index was 15262 yuan / ton, and the week fell 5 yuan / ton, compared with the CF1701 contract of Zheng cotton futures, the premium was 67 yuan / ton, and the week reduced by 360 yuan / ton.

From the short-term or long-term perspective, the number of cotton planting in the upper reaches is increasing year by year. According to the law of price and value, the gradual increase of cotton prices is also expected.

This new cotton encounter "cold", due to the downstream demand is sluggish, "reserve grain" is still more sufficient.

Before the start of the next round of cotton reserves, there will still be gaps. We believe that cotton is still supported in the long run, and it is feasible to prepare it carefully.

The price dropped by an average of 0.4 per kg / kg, the cost of lint cotton dropped by 1000 yuan / ton, and the price of lint sale gradually decreased. In addition, after nearly 1 months of consumption, the stock of cotton reserves decreased, and some cotton mills needed to be replenished. The new cotton business began to increase. The volume of Xinjiang's direct production was the largest, and the quantity of small inland storage was more.

Because Xinjiang cotton quotations have been lowered, and cotton seed prices have been strong, some enterprises have greatly reduced their quotations compared with the previous period. In addition, the mainland's cotton mill has not had enough stock of cotton reserves for 1 months.

Because of the high price of new cotton and the high risk of holding goods, the mainland trade enterprises rarely enter the Xinjiang region. Some of the processing enterprises began to move to the mainland to promote sales. Due to the small amount of storage and the lower prices, they sold faster.

The acquisition cost of each enterprise is different, the source and cost of the fund are different, the judgement for the future market is different, the quotation of new cotton quotation is quite different, and the gross weight of Xinjiang delivery price is 15300-16300 yuan / ton.

Owing to different quality, the quoted price is basically between 14500-15500 yuan / ton.

The United States cotton 15800-16000 yuan / ton, Australia cotton 16400-16800 yuan / ton, India gradually arrived, the price should be 15000-15500 yuan / ton.

If the price of 15000 yuan / ton of cotton, 32 yuan 22500 yuan / ton, 40 23500 yuan / ton price has been in the state of cash flow protection, the financial cost of high enterprises have lost money, eager to face the rapid pmission of profits.

Short term: by participating in the dumping market,

In September, a large number of cotton stocks were replenish to cope with the current market.

But now, some textile enterprises have already consumed a lot of cotton stocks, and the demand for replenishment has gradually emerged.

After the national day, the price of yarn has risen to a certain extent, and the profits of textile enterprises have increased.

In the current situation, I believe that within 7-10 days, the spinning enterprises will continue to pick up the goods. When the price of lint is high, it is estimated that the spinning enterprises can only endure the pain.

It is only a prerequisite for most textile enterprises to purchase Xinjiang cotton. First, the need for high quality hand picking cotton is mainly reflected in fiber length, horse value and strength; furthermore, spinning enterprises are more recognized for machine picking cotton. The main reason is the consistency of machine picked cotton is better, and the price is relatively low.

Long term view: according to the prediction of China Cotton Association, the total output of cotton in 2016 was about 4 million 607 thousand tons, down 4.4% from the same period last year.

Among them, the output of Xinjiang was about 3 million 608 thousand tons, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. The output of the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin was about 463 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 16.8% and 24.8% respectively over the same period last year.

In 2016, China's cotton consumption is about 7 million 230 thousand tons, the annual production demand gap is 2 million 620 thousand tons, excluding the import of 894 thousand tons, and the remaining 1 million 730 thousand tons need to reserve cotton wheels to fill up.

In accordance with the past storage strategy, the reserve cotton market will be the first to be around March next year. In the current period to March next year, especially when the market has lost the season of new flower concentrated listing, the market gap effect will appear, and the cotton is expected to rise over the long term.