The Renminbi Has Depreciated This Year.

A foreign media survey of 21 institutions' foreign exchange analysts and traders showed that the value of the on shore RMB against the US dollar would not be weaker than 6.8 at the end of the year, corresponding to the annual depreciation rate of about 4.5%.

This means that the renminbi has basically depreciated this year.

At 23:30 on Tuesday, Beijing time on the shore, the RMB traded against the US dollar ended at 6.7795 yuan.

At the same time, Wall Street intelligence "fear and greed index" shows that the renminbi has been out of the state of extreme fear.

Most respondents believe that the late devaluation of the renminbi is mainly driven by the strength of the US dollar.

The devaluation factors mentioned by some people include the expectation of depreciation, the pressure of cross-border capital outflow, more domestic easing measures, and domestic

And so on.

In the survey, respondents including German Commercial Bank Zhou Hao, MITSUBISHI Tokyo Japan Union Bank Li Liuyang and overseas Chinese bank Xie Dongming expressed similar views.

We have emphasized more than once.

The depreciation is itself due to the fact that the US dollar is too strong, which can be seen from the RMB against the euro, the pound and other currencies.

In the survey, quite a few respondents mentioned that the Central Bank of China may intervene to maintain the exchange rate expectations at the 6.8 integer pass or the 6.83 level of the RMB's long-term market after the international financial crisis in 2008.

The last time the central bank held the 6.8 water level in 2008, from July 2008 until June 2010, the central bank would not give up this barrier lightly, and it would probably reverse its downward trend at about 6.82.

What about the US dollar index? Similarly, as we mentioned in yesterday's Wall Street Intelligence Group's article, the US dollar index has no space to go up and may change at any time.

Most of the respondents expect the US dollar index to be 98 at the end of this year, which means that even if the US dollar raises interest rates at the end of the year, it will be difficult for the US dollar to rise further, and may even fall behind the current level of nearly 99.

Now the market is all abnormal because the dollar is too strong.

Next, we must say boldly: This is about to end.

With the US dollar index approaching the 100 mark,

The change is also about to start countdown.

If you think carefully about the supporting factors of the US dollar index, you will find that these are basically reflected in the current market.

The respondents include JP Morgan, ING, BOC International Securities, Australia New Bank, China Merchants Bank, overseas Chinese bank, China Academy of Social Sciences, Mizuho bank and so on.

According to Fitch, an international credit rating agency, the risk of a hard landing and a further sharp depreciation of the renminbi has diminished in the near term.

Fitch released the third quarter of this year's Asia Pacific Risk radar report that China's policymakers rely on credit expansion to support the economy, which will help to achieve recent economic growth targets, but contributes to long-term macroeconomic imbalances.

Fitch believes that China's economy is showing signs of stabilization. The Chinese government will allow economic growth to reach a sustainable level and avoid a hard landing.

Moreover, there is reason to believe that the risk of a sharp devaluation of the renminbi is not so urgent. It is estimated that by 2018, the yuan will gradually fall to 7.2 against the US dollar.

Earlier, the risk radar series released by Fitch said that the future path of the central bank's current ultra conventional monetary policy is the most urgent risk in the world.

It expects the US Federal Reserve to increase interest rates step by step in the next two years. The European Central Bank will continue to provide monetary stimulus, and the Bank of Japan will continue the negative interest rate policy.