Demand Warming Will Form Support For PTA

PTA overcapacity problem is difficult to change in a short time, so the price is hovering near the cost line, and the backward production capacity is eliminated by low price to become the industry's present situation.

In this case, cost is the most important factor affecting the price trend of PTA.

In mid September, PTA prices began to weaken as crude oil fell and polyester companies shut down in large areas, resulting in a decline in technology to the bottom of triangular finishing.

Later stage

Is it a backlash or down the downline? I think the answer should be found on the base.

Judging from the current situation, the negative factors of crude oil are numerous: first, the number of drilling announced by Beck and Hughes has continued to increase, and the US crude oil production has increased; two, with the steady situation in Iran and Iraq, crude oil exports have gradually recovered; three, the data released by the US energy information administration have lowered the expected growth rate of global crude oil consumption.

In addition, the OPEC informal meeting will be held at the end of the month to decide whether to freeze crude oil output. Although many countries support the freeze production plan, the possibility of reaching a frozen production agreement is low considering the inconsistency of interests among oil producing countries.

However, although the overall supply and demand situation of crude oil is not optimistic, the current oil price is 44 US dollars / barrel, and the drop space is very limited.

From past experience, the oil price of 40 US dollars / barrel is lower than that of OPEC and Russia. Once the oil price is approaching this level, OPEC will be changed by means of frozen production.

Although it may not be frozen in the end, it can achieve the purpose of pushing up oil prices.

Therefore, under the current level of oil prices, even if the frozen production at the end of the month is expected to fail, OPEC will also support oil prices through other ways, so the resistance of oil prices to continue downward is very large.

Judging from the limited space of oil prices, the author believes that the downward effect of upstream cost on PTA price is failing.

On the one hand, after the Mid Autumn Festival, enterprises suspended by the G20 summit began to resume work.

Among them, PTA start-up load rose to 60%, and polyester start-up load increased to 77%.

Considering that the growth rate of polyester start-up load is obviously larger than that of PTA start-up load, the supply and demand structure will tend to be tight balance in the later stage, which will support the price of PTA.

On the other hand, the PTA inventory of the downstream polyester enterprises is currently at a high level, averaging about 5.5 days, while the average inventory of PTA enterprises is only 2.5 days, at a very low level.

Later, though

The stock is on the high side, but with the increase of polyester load, polyester enterprises will speed up the process of inventory, and the willingness to replenishment will also be strengthened.

Under such circumstances, PTA enterprises should not only face the demand for replenishment of downstream enterprises, but also take into account the low inventory of PTA enterprises themselves, so as to ensure smooth supply and increase stock reserves.

Through the above discussion, the author believes that although the weakness of crude oil is difficult to change, considering that oil prices are already low, the downlink space is limited, and the impact of cost decline on PTA is exhausted.

In addition, with the end of the G20 summit, the start-up load of the downstream polyester enterprises has rebounded sharply, and the inventory of PTA enterprises is at a low level. Later PTA will face a shortage of stage.

Therefore, PTA is expected to continue to rebound.