PTA Season Has Come To Stimulate Polyester Factories To Resume Work Quickly.

At present, in the PTA industry chain, the cost end of crude oil, naphtha and so on enter the interval shock; the demand side predicts that the polyester plant will quickly resume driving, and will have certain support for PTA demand.

Although it has entered the traditional "golden nine silver ten" peak season, but part of the demand or has been digested ahead of time, polyester demand needs to be verified later.

But on the whole, the supply and demand relationship of PTA will improve in September. It is expected that the supply and demand will be basically balanced and may be strong in the short term, but the rebound depends highly on the recovery of polyester load.

In August, international crude oil rebounded from the lowest point of 41.51 US dollars / barrel to 51.22 US dollars / barrel, and then began to decline after a brief concussion.

It is noteworthy that the success of the freeze production agreement in September, the fact that the US gasoline stocks are still above the average of 5 years, and the coming of the refinery's maintenance season will raise questions about the oil price rise.

The price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil has dropped sharply this year.

The higher supply of naphtha also suppressed the splitting profits of naphtha.

At present, the price difference of naphtha has shrunk to historical lows. Therefore, the probability of declining oil prices in the fourth quarter of this year is relatively small, and the adjustment should be mainly adjusted and minor amendments.

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As well as PTA factory parking and logistics outage news, polyester sales were boosted by the downstream factories ahead of schedule, while polyester price fluctuations were not large, but inventories decreased significantly. Most companies had good cash flow conditions, and the benefits increased over last month, which will stimulate the rapid recovery of polyesters plant.

Unlike naphtha, the processing price difference of PX is relatively good, but since August, the supply of PX has been sufficient, resulting in the price differentials beginning to shrink.

As a result, the oversupply of PX in September may continue.

In July and August this year, the off-season is not bad and some enterprises are stocking up ahead of time. The polyester load has been hovering above 80%, making the rigid demand for PTA has been able to maintain, and PTA is basically in a state of small inventory.

In recent years, the polyester plant in Xiaoshao area has been parking in large areas, and the polyester load has dropped to about 63%. However, the PTA plant has not been overhauled in recent years, and its load has dropped from about 70% to about 62%.

According to the actual amount of PTA used in polyester, the PTA load at this time is much larger than the balance load, that is to say, PTA begins to accumulate.

According to CCF data, August

The monthly output is 2 million 730 thousand tons, the import volume is estimated to be 40 thousand tons, the total domestic PTA supply is expected to be 2 million 770 thousand tons, the total output of polyester is about 3 million 30 thousand tons, the equivalent PTA consumption is about 2 million 604 thousand tons, the consumption of PTA in other fields is about 80 thousand tons, the domestic export PTA volume is estimated at 7-8 million tons, and the domestic PTA total demand is about 2 million 684 thousand tons.

Overall, the supply and demand of domestic PTA basically balanced in August, and social stocks remained stable.

In September, the PTA plant was overhauled, including a number of large installations such as Hong Kong Petrochemical, Taihua Xingye, Yisheng, Hengli and so on. It is estimated that the PTA load will be maintained at a low level in the first half of 9.

From the warehouse receipts situation, since July, a large number of warehouse receipts began to flow out, from the highest point to nearly 1 million tons to 500 thousand tons.

This part of the cancelled warehouse receipts mainly flows to PTA factories and polyester factories, which will have a certain impact on the price of PTA.

The current PTA spot processing spreads fluctuate around 400 yuan / ton, and there is still limited room for downward compression.