Evolution Of PTA Futures With "Imbalance Of Supply And Demand"

As the most important raw material for the production of polyester polyester yarn, PTA's market trend has been affecting the "nerve" of polyester industry.

In the past 5 years since 2011, China

The market has experienced changes from supply to demand.

In the case of a sharp decline in production profits or even a loss, the attitude of the PTA market towards PTA futures has gradually changed. It has never understood, resisted, accepted and actively applied, and the functions and advantages of PTA futures hedging, price discovery and so on have been gradually recognized by enterprises.

Reporters learned in the survey that in the past two years, the warehouse receipts of PTA futures have been maintained high, indicating that the function of PTA futures has been recognized by more and more people in the industry.

Xie Haisu, deputy general manager of Limited by Share Ltd Trade Department of Xiamen China World Trade Center group, said that at present, the PTA futures warehouse receipt can almost completely reflect the stock situation of PTA stock. The market has made the industry's many information explicit and pparent through the trading warehouse of Zhengzhou commodity exchange, which has played a good role in promoting the stable operation of PTA market.

At present, with the gradual deepening of the market's understanding of PTA futures, PTA's spot trading, warehouse receipt repurchase and other warehouse receipts have been widely recognized by the market.

From PTA producers, middle traders to polyester factories, they are actively participating in the PTA futures market in combination with their own advantages, exploring new models of warehouse receipts, and striving to win the initiative and gain profits in the fierce market competition.

Futures warehouse receipts promote pparency of PTA Market

In recent years, China's PTA market has been increasingly competitive.

Since 2011, the annual growth rate of domestic PTA capacity has remained at around 28%, while the average annual growth rate of its downstream polyester industry is only 11.5%, and the allocation of upstream and downstream resources is seriously unbalanced.

The overcapacity of PTA capacity shows that the PTA market is also gradually changing from seller's market to buyer's market.

With the fierce competition between buyers and sellers and gradual pfer of discourse power, PTA's pricing mode has also changed greatly, and has developed towards diversification and marketization.

In the past, the PTA spot market mainly adopted the pricing method of "annual contract goods", and PTA production enterprises only had market pricing power unilaterally, while downstream polyester enterprises had no say in pricing.

However, with the rapid expansion of PTA production capacity, the competition between PTA production enterprises is becoming more and more intense, and sales pressure is also increasing.

In order to win customers, PTA enterprises are increasingly beginning to give up unilateral pricing power.

Against this background, the PTA industry is going through the traditional hang up pricing mode (hanging and closing price is PTA factory unilateral pricing) declining. The new hanging knot price mode, that is, the monthly average price minus the Alfa mode (the listing price is PTA factory unilateral pricing, the third price pricing is gradually rising).

In this process, because the procurement contract goods have greater price advantage than the purchase spot, the survival space of PTA traders is continuously compressed. Under the condition of the profit becoming more and more small, PTA traders only need to combine PTA futures market aggressively to hedge, in order to win more profits.

Comparing futures and spot pricing methods, we find that PTA spot trading is a simple trading relationship, relatively simple, and futures warehouse receipts have strong financial attributes, can be pledged, can also be turned into cash, but also in the futures market to offset the margin.

Due to high standardization and low circulation cost, through the cancellation of warehouse receipts in other places, the logistics cost can be greatly reduced and operational efficiency improved.

In addition, Zou Jinlong, the Ministry of chemical industry of Peking University Founder Group Co., Ltd., said that the futures warehouse receipt changed the social inventory of PTA industry from covert to dominant. This not only helps the middle traders understand the true supply and demand situation of the upstream and downstream industries of PTA, so as to judge, analyze and make decisions more accurately, and play a role of pparent supervision.

Chen Luwen, general manager of Xiamen Xiangyu logistics and commodity derivatives division, also said that the PTA futures warehouse list made the PTA social inventory hidden in every circulation link explicit, making it easier for enterprises to judge the market, greatly improving the market efficiency of PTA production, trade and consumption enterprises, and making the market more pparent.

Rational allocation of PTA market resources in adversity

According to reports, at present, the domestic PTA capacity reaches 2 million 800 thousand tons / month, but the downstream polyester plant has a maximum operating rate of only 85%.

For most PTA producers, the use of PTA futures is conducive to early lock in profits when considering the pressure of capital and the risk of falling prices.

Cao Mingji, deputy general manager of marketing center of Zhejiang Yisheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd., said: "in recent years, as the new capacity of PTA continues to mount, the competition pattern of PTA industry has changed, and the market has changed from supply to demand to supply exceeding demand. Therefore, the days of production enterprises are not as good as before.

Enterprises must improve efficiency through meticulous management.

Fortunately, the market soon realized that it was not that financial capital took away the pricing advantage of production enterprises, but that PTA futures rationally allocated resources for the industry in adversity and became a tool for enterprises to lock costs and profits.

More factories from the initial do not understand PTA

The market even excludes the final acceptance and application, and arranges production according to the change of PTA futures price.

In the context of the state's push for supply side reform, PTA futures has played a unique role, and this is also a sign of the maturity of PTA futures.

For the current situation of large volume of PTA futures warehouse receipts, Chen Luwen said that the company's willingness to register futures warehouse receipts is mainly affected by the following factors: first, under the condition of credit guarantee of Zhengzhou commodity exchange, futures warehouse receipts form multiple guarantees for cargo rights; secondly, through off-site injection and sales, enterprises have brought convenience and reduced logistics costs; thirdly, through the warehouse receipt repurchase and margin deposit, the problem of enterprise funds has been solved.

"The convenience and financial attributes of PTA futures warehouse receipts have gradually been recognized by the society in the long term development, and the market is more willing to express the goods in the form of futures warehouse receipts."

Chen Luwen said.

At the same time, vice president of Yisheng Research Center, Wu Zhong said that PTA futures had a positive impact on the capacity of the industry.

"With the downward trend of PTA prices, PTA's" leading "enterprise has the advantages of capacity and technology, and can withstand the pressure of low price operation of PTA products. This is precisely what those backward production enterprises can not afford.

In this case, some backward production capacity will be eliminated. "

Traders into PTA upstream and downstream reservoir

The flexible application of PTA industrial chain to futures warehouse receipts is closely related to the positive role played by traders in the middle.

Wu said: "PTA producers expect the higher the price of PTA, and the lower the polyester enterprise expects the lower the PTA price, the better the contradiction."

He explained, "Yisheng is PTA.

A reasonable price will be calculated according to the production cost, inventory cost, ideal profit and current price.

When the calculated price is higher than the PTA spot price, we will sell the product to the middleman. When the PTA futures price falls faster than the spot price, when the spot price minus the base price is smaller than the spot price, we will repurchase the warehouse receipt and deliver it to the contract customer to earn the price difference.

The middleman is concerned not with price but price difference. As long as the price difference is right, the higher price will be picked up, and its own advantages will play a role in tandem PTA upstream and downstream enterprises.

Xie Haisu said: "at present, PTA consumption in China is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region. 70%~80%'s PTA capacity is applied to the clothing industry, but PTA production enterprises are mainly concentrated in Dalian and Hainan.

In previous years, when typhoon occurred, it often caused many days of suspension and shutdown. The tightening of spot led to the rise of futures prices, which would bring a temporary impact on the market.

However, with more and more PTA delivery in East China, enterprises can extract goods through the near cancellation of futures list, which not only avoids the risk in the way, but also saves the freight.

Chen Luwen also said that PTA futures warehouse receipts not only bring production protection to the upstream and downstream, but also solve the problem of pressure on the capital, and also alleviate the impact of the weather, pport and other force majeure on the industrial chain.

For middlemen, the main purpose is to provide funds and more effective hedging schemes, reduce costs for the other side, make profits through services, and complement each other to achieve win-win results and form a community of interests.