Cotton Prices Will Be Staged At A Later Stage In The Short Term Cotton Prices.

The near future, market On the Reserve cotton There are more rumors that the volume will increase or more. Zheng cotton's contracts have dropped sharply, and the disk has hit the limit. Then, the enthusiasm of the cotton auction is obviously cooled down. The average daily spanaction price is 14592 yuan / ton, which is down 609 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the fund speculation is showing signs of ebb. Recently, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and other places in 2012 / 2013 reserves Xinjiang cotton quotations down to 14700-15000 yuan / ton, real estate reserve cotton quotes 14200-14500 yuan / ton, compared with the previous two days significantly reduced 500 yuan / ton, cotton mill C40S, C32S cotton yarn factory price also fell 300-400 yuan / ton. Cotton yarn The characteristics of "slow price increase and fast fall" are outstanding. Judging from the survey, with the domestic cotton prices hitting the top and falling behind, the "clampdown" must be on the dust. Some of the early "no quotes, no sales" cotton mills and a large number of traders hoarding cotton yarn to panic sell are increasing. A few sensitive operators take the lead in reducing the yarn price by 300 yuan / ton.

The author believes that the short-term cotton prices are not mature enough. The blind selling of traders is likely to form "trample on each other", which is not conducive to the stability of the cotton market, nor is it conducive to downstream spinning and weaving. It is expected that cotton prices will be staged in the later stage.

First, if the reserve cotton is delayed for one month, the impact of the "storming" on the supply and demand is not great. The trend and psychology of cotton before the listing of new cotton will be greatly changed. According to the central storage cotton related responsible person, at present, the warehouses have the ability to cooperate with the public inspection about 2.7-2.8 tons (as of July 24th, the 2 million round of the 2015/16 plan has initially completed the public inspection, but according to the directive, this year's public inspection plan is 4 million tons, warehouse cutters and public inspection are still pushing forward). If we do not adjust the "bag inspection" method, the daily listing volume is still around 30 thousand tons. In September, the 22 trading day, the increase in the output of the 660 thousand tons is about 660 thousand tons.

Two, in late September, the domestic textile enterprises have only a narrow space to replenish raw materials, and reserve cotton is the only channel. Judging from the quotations and sources of the international cotton traders and importers, the shipping date for 8/9 months is only 2016. The cotton shipping date is concentrated in 9/10/11 months. The shipping date of the US cotton in October is the earliest in October, and the early flower strength is low, the length is bad and the horse is big. There are not many quotas for cotton imports in the 1% tariff of the remaining 2016. Most of the large textile enterprises and operators are waiting for the use of 2016/17 cotton and India cotton after the listing. However, in the port bonded spot, except for Australia cotton, the quality of old cotton products such as American cotton and Ukrainian cotton is low in 2015/16, and the spinnability is poor. According to statistics, as at the end of June, China imported 430 thousand and 200 tons of cotton in 2016, down 53.9% from the same period last year, deducting the quota of 5-7 tons in 2015, and the remaining quota is 89.6-43.02+ (5-7) =51.58-53.58 million tons. In late July, the CNF quotations for 8/9 and SM15/32 were 90.75 cents / pound, 90 cents / pound respectively, and 1% yuan under the tariff was 15270 yuan / ton, 15150 yuan / ton (net weight), still significantly higher than the auction price of reserve cotton.

Three is cotton yarn, grey cloth passively follow the cotton and other raw materials to rise, although the cost pressure to slow down downstream, but the market gradually absorbed some of the gains. From the quotation of the mainland textile enterprises, the increase of C40S and above counts of cotton yarn is relatively large, generally reaching 2000-2500 yuan / ton, while the OE yarn and C21-C32S yarn have risen by about 1200-1800 yuan / ton. The increase of the total cotton grey cloth is about 0.60-1.0 yuan / M (the adjustment range of high density and high density grey cloth is about 1-1.20 yuan / M). Although the downstream fabric factories, garment factories and foreign trade companies have strong feelings of resistance, however, under the premise of the raw material rising, conditional lifting of the contract price has become a helplessness, though the cost of the upstream and downstream businesses has not been fully and effectively digested.