Cotton Consumption Pattern Change, Productivity To Midwest Cotton Production Area Spanfer

1. basic situation of the industry

1) since 2012, our country Spin The operation of the industry continues to exhibit the following characteristics: all indicators are slowing down in an overall way, and some are even the lowest level of growth over the years. market There is still no marked improvement. The weak recovery trend in the export market has not changed. The contradiction of overcapacity caused by the overall slowdown in demand has become increasingly prominent.

2) the rapid expansion of the horse race enclosure in textile industry is difficult to sustain. The "golden age" of the industry has passed and the turning point has emerged. Low growth or even zero growth may become a new normal for the textile industry, and even the possibility of negative growth can not be ruled out. The development of China's textile industry has entered a new stage of deep spanformation and upgrading.

3) 2016-2025 years will be a new round of upgrading of the industry. With the implementation of China's new round of reform measures, the new bonus of the next development of China's textile industry will be fully established, and the industrial competitiveness will enter a new round of upgrading. The new growth pattern supported by technological innovation will basically take shape and realize the spanformation from a big textile country to a strong textile country. Urbanization The Belt and Road Initiative Internet + and intelligent manufacturing, supply side reform and so on are expected new dividends.

2. pattern change of cotton consumption

1) the amount of cotton consumption shrinks:

A) from the institutional data: ICAC data show that consumption in 2010-2015 years has shrunk by 2 million 860 thousand tons, USDA370 million tons, China Cotton Association 3 million 800 thousand tons, and cotton trade association 4 million 400 thousand tons. We believe that from 2010 to now, the overall shrinkage is around 3 million 700 thousand tons.

B) from the perspective of productivity change, in 2010, China's cotton textile industry produced about 121 million spindles, and the number of spindles dropped to 7000-8000 million spindles in 2014, with a shrinkage of over 30%.

2) changes in cotton consumption pattern:

A) there will be significant changes in cotton consumption in China in the future. From a scale perspective, low growth or even negative growth will become the norm, and the number will show a gradual shrinking trend. From a structural point of view, the low-end market will gradually be replaced by imported yarn. With the upgrading of consumption, the focus of domestic cotton yarn consumption will also gradually move to the high-end and high-end fields, and the product structure of domestic spinning enterprises will be adjusted accordingly. We must soberly face the stage of production capacity and structural surplus.

B) changes in the consumption structure of cotton yarn will accelerate the spanformation of textile enterprises. First, upgrading products, increasing the production and development of high count yarn, chemical fiber blended yarn and new fiber yarn; two, upgrading the technology and equipment, increasing the application of new spinning methods such as compact spinning and siro spinning, etc. (as of the end of 2014, China's compact spinning has exceeded 18 million spindles); three is the spanfer of production capacity, spanferring productivity to the central and western cotton producing areas (key Xinjiang) or Southeast Asia (key Vietnam).

C) foreign enterprises are eyeing the Chinese market. The Shanghai international textile yarn (Chun Xia) exhibition in 2015, which opened in March 16th, mainly came from India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam and Uzbekistan. In the past few years, the import volume of foreign yarn has increased significantly. We believe that the trend is irreversible. Chinese enterprises can only choose to upgrade their industries and develop new varieties, and adjust to the direction of "high, big and high", otherwise they will only have a "dead end".

3) the trend of cotton consumption in the future:

A) China's cotton consumption basically presents a basic rule of every 5 years.

B) after 2010-2015 years of rapid decline, China's cotton consumption has been accompanied by industrial upgrading in 2016-2020 years, and is expected to enter the new round of platform area as a whole. Consumption is expected to fluctuate around 6 million tons.

C) China's cotton consumption is influenced by multiple factors such as import yarn, chemical fiber substitution, product structure adjustment, product upgrading and terminal consumption slowdown.