The Labor Pains Of Cotton Importers Are Yet To Be Cured.

For short-term cotton prices trend, cotton import enterprises generally believe that the downward pressure is bigger, "labor pains" yet to be treated. On the one hand, due to the price effect of cotton trading in the national reserve, buyers and sellers' psychological price is relatively large, and it takes time to exchange space; on the other hand, the recent 20-30 million tons of imported cotton concentrate in 2012, resulting in effective replenish of raw material inventory of cotton enterprises, and no rush to purchase.

Plus "buy or sell".

Driven by the fact that the imported cotton's short-term game is hard to win, considering that only about 200000 tons of imported cotton are imported from the national reserve, and the top Australian cotton and American cotton are given priority to meet the needs of spinning high count yarn and combed yarn in the cotton mill. After a short supply of "Banquet", the consumption gap of the new cotton market in 2016/17 is still 1-2 months before, and under the premise that the cotton sales of the regiment cotton have been sold at 95%, it can only rely on port cotton to "pition".

On the 6-8 day of May, the shipping price of 5/6 SM1-5/32 was 12600 yuan / ton (net weight settlement) under the 1% tariff of Australia cotton.

Spot advantage is relatively obvious.

According to statistics, as of the end of April, the import quota of 894 thousand tons of cotton in 2016 only used 30-35 tons, and there are still 50-60 tons of quotas to fill the supply gap at any time. With the 2016 cotton and Brazil cotton entering and high-grade cotton growing scarce in recent years,

Ushered in "application".

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The average daily output of cotton reserves will remain at around 30 thousand tons this week, and the hot season will gradually cool down.

On the one hand, some cotton textile enterprises and intermediaries have been relieved of raw materials inventory, and there are more considerations on downstream consumption and peripheral market and economic environment. It is expected that wait-and-see sentiment will increase. On the other hand, the "cotton and cotton" electronic matchmaking disk has taken the lead in returning to reason.

First, from the calculation point of view, the reserve cotton spinning yarn has only 500-1000 yuan / ton profit margin, and the profit risk will increase after the market.

Recently, the ICE cotton main contract has fallen by more than 3 cents / pounds. The domestic cotton price in India has also declined at a high level. The price of international cotton yarn CNF and CIF is inevitable. The cost of domestic spinning also decreases after the storage of cotton spinning, and whether it is difficult to judge whether the internal and external cotton yarn is combined to descend, thus greatly reducing the expected profit margin.

In May 9th, Zheng cotton and commodity cotton electronic matching have dived, and the impact on dealers of ICE cotton and cotton auction should not be underestimated. The downstream textile, clothing and foreign trade companies can not follow up orders and prices, leading to the difficulty of breaking away from fundamentals.

Second, the US dollar strengthened and the ICE cotton fell below 62 cents / pound.

In March, the US Non manufacturing index, durable goods orders performance and early April unemployment figures were excellent, giving the us enough support, so the Fed's interest rate hike in June or July was again noisy.

The rebound in commodities was blocked, and the pressure descended into a big probability event. Moreover, from April, China's import and export data fell again, and after April, CPI entered the downstream channel, and PPI continued to narrow. In March, the recovery of economic data was just an illusion, and the rebound of commodities is likely to be lost.

Third, textile and clothing gradually entered the off-season, and demand remained variable.

It is understood that in the middle of 5, orders for garments, fabrics, grey fabrics and cotton yarn will gradually come to an end, and the production and sale of OE yarn and C21-C40S yarn will be far away.

Because of the difficulty of increasing the price of textile and clothing, and so on, many looms factories and trading companies are facing no profit or even loss. Cotton spot has risen by 800-1000 yuan / ton, cotton yarn has only risen 200-300 yuan / ton, grey fabrics and fabrics are standing at a steady pace, and the cost increases cannot be pmitted. The problem of gastric indigestion is prominent.

During the May 1st period, some small weaving enterprises in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang had been on vacation for a long time.

Although in the short term, the reserve cotton has reduced the cost of spinning enterprises to a certain extent, but the shortage of orders, the decline of yarn quality and stability and the tight funds have seriously restricted the pace of downstream enterprises.

From the perspective of market feedback, with the further development of cotton reserves, textile enterprises and traders will become increasingly rational in bidding. The market is expected to lower the spot price of cotton in late May with the decline of the reserve price of futures and reserve cotton. After the wave of capital speculation, cotton enterprises, spinning enterprises and traders will return to reason.