Rumors Of Dumping And Storage Continued To Drop Inside And Outside Cotton.

In recent days, rumors about dumping and selling have been increasing, and spot traders have stepped up sales, and cotton prices have continued to slide.

Zheng cotton far month contract fell below 10000 yuan in turn, after the paction failed to effectively follow up, it is expected that there will still be room below.

From the trend, there is a gap between the demand and output during the 2015/16 season, and China's massive cotton reserves are being stockpiling and the competition of neighboring countries has been suppressed for a long time.

Trend.

It is expected that the long term operation of Zheng Mian will not be phased out, and it is recommended that the short selling be short.

Operation suggestion:

1. trend operation:

Zheng cotton: concussion operation is weak, it is recommended to sell short every rally.

US cotton: long term oscillation, band operation

2. arbitrage operation: no

Important monitoring points:

1. domestic spot

trend

2. external trend

3. exports of US cotton

Risk factors:

1. international crude oil price trend

2. China's new cotton purchase policy

3. cotton sales policy in India?

Changes in industry news and testing indicators

(1) overnight, the US cotton fell sharply, the low position rebounded, the line with the shadow line was collected, the volume of pactions was completed; the ICE registered warehouse receipt was converted to 656 (+21) contract; as of February 23rd, the CFTC fund futures net number continued to decrease, and the position occupied -3.23%, for two consecutive weeks.

(2) in recent days, Zheng cotton resumed its downward trend, and after the long month contract broke up in succession, the paction failed to follow up effectively.

There is a continuous rumor in the reserve cotton and the pressure on spot traders to increase sales.

The effective forecast volume of warehouse receipts is 409 (+22) Zhang, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 879 (-44).

(3) on the international market, the signing progress of the US cotton has been lower than that of the same period last year and the average level of nearly five years. The sales pressure is obvious. Due to the impact of cotton production reduction and the low pport cost of Pakistan and India, the number of imported cotton in India has increased significantly, and the domestic cotton price in India has gone up higher than MSP. The import of cotton in Vietnam has been greatly increased by the pull of the MSP effect.

(4) in the domestic market, China's cotton price index CC Index3128B is 12090 (-29), and the import cotton price index FC Index M is 65.68 (-0.24).

After the holiday trade started gradually, cotton prices weakened.

Domestic yarn prices continue to fall, leading to the weakening of import yarn price advantage.

Sticky short price hit bottom rebound; polyester short price is affected by crude oil trend, the cotton and polyester ratio is at a higher level; the substitution trend of chemical fiber and new fiber to cotton is difficult to reverse in the short term.

Overnight

A sharp fall, low rebound, with the shadow line below the shadow line, the volume of pactions.

US cotton contract progress is still slower than the same period last year and the average level of nearly five years, price pressure.

India's cotton exports are smooth and its domestic cotton prices remain high.