The Focus Of The Global Market Is One After Another.

Since the beginning of 2016, the focus of the market has been around worries about the recovery of emerging market economies and the collapse of oil prices.

However, there is another wave in the global market.

At noon on February 20th, British Prime Minister Cameron announced at 10 Downing street that Britain will hold a referendum in June 23rd to decide whether Britain will remain in the EU or withdraw.

This is the first British referendum on its membership since 1975. For the European Union, if the UK withdraws, the blueprint for establishing a tight alliance in the euro area will become a bubble. For Britain, Britain will not have to share nearly 10 billion pounds (US $14 billion 400 million) annually.

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But Britain will also lose the right to enter the European single market automatically. And nearly 50% of the UK's import and export trade depends on the European Union, which will affect employment and trade in the UK.

The bank wrote in the Market Research Report:

From now until the June 23rd referendum in Britain, we believe that the pound will be accompanied by additional discounts at the level indicated by interest rate or stock market pricing.

Boris Johnson, one of Britain's hottest politicians, has supported the launch of the EU's camp in Johnson, which has played a role in the weakness of the pound.

As time progressively approaches the referendum day, polls are

The decisive significance of the trend will become more and more important.

The pound / dollar Asian market reported 1.4115 in the afternoon, after falling to a low of 1.4057 in March 2009.

Sterling fell nearly 2%, the biggest one-day drop in nearly 6 years.

London mayor Johnson (Boris Johnson) announced the support of Britain's withdrawal from the EU, the pound was sold.

Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) is still down the pound, and believes that the current "British return to Europe" the negative impact is being applied to the extreme.

"The increase in risk appetite also can't help the pound, because the market is increasingly recognizing the risk of Britain's retreat from Europe."

According to the latest statistics, the results of the telephone interview show "stay".

"The number of those in favor is in the lead, and the Internet survey indicates that the number of those who are" out of the EU "is in the lead.

We expect that the pound will be pressurized before the referendum in June, and we will be able to quote the end of the pound / US dollar to 1.30 at the end of the referendum.

We believe that foreign exchange pactions need to have a better risk / return ratio, and the advantage of shorting the euro / US dollar is that Britain's withdrawal from Europe may make the market begin to question the progress of European integration.

In the tactical asset allocation arrangement, Morgan Stanley has 1.1360 euro / dollar empty head positions, the revised stop loss to 1.1210, the target look at 1.0700.