The RMB Exchange Rate Gradually Deviated From The Fixed Exchange Rate System.

During the Chinese new year, apart from the turmoil in the external market, the most notable financial incident may be the rare voice of Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank.

The signal released has also become a hot topic recently.

Some analysts have suggested that perhaps the most noteworthy signal of Zhou Xiaochuan's voice is that the exchange rate reform will be in a state of reprieve, and that a stable exchange rate target will restrain the relaxation of domestic monetary policy.

Guoxin fixed Dong Dezhi team believes that for the domestic interest rate market, exclusive interview has important reference content only one point: under the global instability, China's exchange rate reform process will temporarily slow down.

Xu Gao, a Macro Analyst of Everbright Securities, has also interpreted Zhou Xiaochuan's voice. He also suggested that a stable exchange rate target should restrain the relaxation of domestic monetary policy.

Since December last year, capital outflows have been running out. However, the central bank has continued to operate through short-term open market operations instead of lowering liquidity. This is mainly due to the fact that the easing of quasi - release will increase the pressure of currency devaluation.

With the reduction of the pressure of RMB depreciation, the monetary policy easing space will increase.

Despite recent stability, the exchange rate remains unchanged.

The main contradiction is that the probability of reduction is not large.

However, considering the downward pressure of the real economy growth, the capital outflow also needs to reduce the long-term liquidity barrier. With the weakening of the RMB depreciation pressure, we believe that the central bank will further reduce its accuracy in the first half of this year.

The Dong Dezhi team also said that interest rate as a price is the result of the joint action of capital supply and financing demand.

When monetary policy is temporarily constrained, it means that the supply of funds is blocked. The pursuit of interest rates can only depend on the slowdown in financing demand. The macro index of financing needs is the nominal growth rate of the economy, which is determined by the economic growth and inflation.

Therefore, whether the downward trend of interest rate will be smooth will return to the basic judgment, because at this stage we think that the economic growth rate and

There is no significant downward trend in the level of interest rates, so interest rates are hard to return to a downward trend in the trend, even in the nominal growth rate has stabilized at a certain stage, interest rates will stage upward.

According to the famous three dollar paradox, it is impossible for a country to achieve the three major financial goals of monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and free capital flow. Only two of them can be selected simultaneously.

Although theoretically, we can eliminate capital free flow by strengthening capital control and achieve monetary policy and exchange rate stability simultaneously. However, in practice, capital flow control is very difficult. In fact, the goal of capital free flow is inevitable. Therefore, each country can only choose between monetary policy independence and exchange rate stability.

If we say that the 811 remittance in the early stage, we will give up to a certain extent.

The goal of stability, the realization of domestic monetary policy and the free flow of capital are simultaneously satisfied.

In the later stage, we can only temporarily abandon the independence of the domestic monetary policy and satisfy the two objectives of exchange rate stability and capital flow under the condition that the exchange rate reform is slowing down and the floating rate of the RMB exchange rate is decreasing.

If the above theoretical analysis is simplified to the impact on the domestic interest rate market, that is, under the current conditions, capital flow is inevitable. For domestic interest rates, if the relaxation of the pursuit of exchange rate stability is pursued, interest rates will have a downward trend. But if the pursuit of stability is strong, the interest rate downlink will be blocked.

Therefore, from this point of view, the downward trend in the interest rate of domestic monetary policy will be phased out, and when this constraint will be weakened, as Zhou said, "sorry, we need new data input".