Analysis Of The Economic Operation Of The Textile Industry In 2015 And How Will It Be In 2016?

For China last year

The overall performance of the industry, the China Textile Industry Federation held in 2015 this morning, the textile industry economic operation analysis will give a four word commentary: slow and stable.

Specifically, the quality and efficiency indicators are steady, industry investment growth, the pace of industrial restructuring is continuous, domestic demand is growing steadily, the three and fourth quarter.

The trend of total negative growth has narrowed at the end of the year.

2015 quality and efficiency increase steadily and main operating index keeps increasing.

By comparing the textile industry with the national industrial key indicators, we can see that the textile industry has played an important role in maintaining the overall stability of the national economy last year, and Naka Yujin and the steady development trend.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2015, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% over the same period last year, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of industry. In 1~11 months, the main business income reached 6 trillion and 371 billion 353 million yuan, an increase of 5.02% over the same period last year, which was 4 percentage points higher than that of the industry. The total profit reached 332 billion 612 million yuan, up 6.83% over the same period last year, which was higher than that of industrial 8.7 percentage points.

Industry investment scale growth

It is worth noting that in 2015, the scale of China's industry investment continued to expand, and the growth of new projects was faster.

According to statistics, last year, the completion amount of fixed assets investment in China's textile industry over 5 million yuan was 1 trillion and 191 billion 321 million yuan, an increase of 14.96% over the same period last year, an increase of 1.59 percentage points over the previous year, and a 18.34% increase in the number of new projects, an increase of 18.86 percentage points over the previous year.

From the perspective of investment structure, investment in the eastern and western regions has increased compared with the previous year, while investment in the central region has declined compared with the previous year.

Total export decline

In 2015, the export of China's textile industry showed four characteristics: first, the decline in export scale, textiles,

Both have declined; two, the growth rate has dropped considerably, but at the end of the year it has narrowed down; three, the export volume and price have dropped down; four, the share of China's textile and clothing in the traditional market has declined.

According to customs statistics, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 283 billion 850 million US dollars last year, down 4.88% from the same period last year. The decline has narrowed after 6 months of continuous deepening, narrowing by 0.9 percentage points over the 1~11 month decline.

While the total export volume of textiles and clothing continued to decline, the number of exports also declined. The number of exports in 1~11 fell by 4.3% over the same period last year, a 2.8 percentage point increase from the first half of the year.

In terms of export structure, in 2015 1~11 months, China's textile exports amounted to 104 billion 974 million US dollars, down 2.53% compared to the same period last year, and clothing exports were US $158 billion 629 million, down 7.64% compared to the same period last year.

2015 1~11 months, China's textile and clothing export market, the EU and Japan market declined significantly, and the US market was somewhat warmer.

However, it is worth noting that, in the United States, the European Union or the Japanese market, the share of China's textile and clothing is declining. In 1~10 months, it accounted for 0.2% of the total textile and clothing imports in the United States, a decrease of 0.7% in the EU market share, and a decrease of 3% in the Japanese market share in, while Vietnam and Bangladesh increased exports to these regions.

Domestic sales growth slowed down steadily

In 2015 1~12, the total retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 9.8% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 1.1 percentage points over the previous year, lower than the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods in the same period, and the cumulative growth rate showed a downward trend in the second half of the year.

The channel has maintained a relatively fast growth trend.

In 2015, the online retail sales of apparel products increased by 21.4% over the same period last year, but the growth rate slowed down in the two quarter. The annual growth rate dropped by 8.7 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.

Operation quality is basically normal.

In 2015 1~11, the total profit of textile enterprises above Designated Size reached 332 billion 610 million yuan, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 8.7 percentage points higher than that of the whole industry.

Industrial chain links, the chemical fiber industry, industry profit growth is relatively fast.

The sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and the turnover rate of finished products was 20.2 times / year, up 0.8% compared with that of the previous year; the three fee ratio was 6.1%, unchanged from the same period last year.

External development pressure is outstanding.

Although direct subsidy measures for cotton planting have been implemented, the follow-up effect of early purchase and storage policy has not been eliminated. The quality of domestic cotton has dropped seriously, and cotton yarn imports have exceeded 2 million tons. The policy of comprehensive coordination of import quota, cotton storage, cotton quality improvement and cotton management system reform are urgent demands for the development of the industry.

2016, external worries are stable and cautiously optimistic.

In 2016, the complexity and seriousness of the external situation faced by the textile industry will remain unchanged.

The global economic recovery is still weak, and the demand for global market demand is insufficient.

With the advance of the supply side structural reform process, the domestic economy is expected to maintain rapid growth in a reasonable range, and the total domestic demand will steadily expand, but the growth rate can hardly be speeded up.

Taking all factors into consideration, in 2016, with the implementation of some policies beneficial to the manufacturing industry, the obvious devaluation of the RMB, the support from domestic demand and the recovery of the economic demand of the main export market countries, the textile industry is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend.

On the export side, it is expected that the growth rate of textile and clothing exports will gradually stabilize and achieve positive growth in 2016.

In terms of domestic demand, the upgrading of consumption structure and the innovation of retail channels are obvious. It is estimated that the growth of clothing retail sales above the quota will be slightly higher than that of 2015.

In terms of production and efficiency, exports have achieved positive growth, and domestic demand has maintained steady growth. It can support the smooth operation of the industry. Although the market competition is increasing, the cost of labor and other factors continues to increase, and the excess capacity of chemical fiber structure is still unsolved. However, the effective implementation of policies and measures such as reducing production cost and expanding effective supply will not improve the production and efficiency of the textile industry. It is expected that the growth rate of main business revenue and gross profit will be higher than that in 2015.

Wang Tiankai, President of the China Textile Industry Federation, said: "overall, the overall operation of the industry in 2015 is relatively stable. The growth of industrial added value, main business income, profit and investment is relatively normal, and the main economic indicators are in a better level in the national industrial system.

Industrial use, chemical fiber, printing and dyeing are all higher than the average profit growth rate of the industry.

For the operation of the textile industry in 2016, the estimated demand is still insufficient, so how to ensure steady growth, structural adjustment and risk control is still very difficult this year.

He also said that under such circumstances, we should think more about what the changes in labor productivity have brought to the industry, and the continuous expansion of the scale of investment in the industry will give the industry confidence.

Du Yuzhou, the former chairman of the China Federation of textile industry, said that the textile industry is now accelerating and upgrading, productivity is evolving and production relations are changing. For example, the productive forces of innovation are constantly emerging and bring new benefits to the industry.

In addition, we need to make more specific and more accurate analysis and judgement on what new investment and sales patterns bring to the industry.

Therefore, the analysis of the economic operation of the industry should keep pace with the times and make a scientific assessment of the development of the industry.

In addition, in yesterday's China Textile Industry Federation 2015 summing up conference, Wang Tiankai also pointed out that in 2016, the industry should focus on four major issues.

First, the capacity of the front end of the textile industry chain.

In the chemical fiber industry, polyester polyester production capacity does not need to be too tight, but PTA overcapacity serious, we must pay attention to. At present, Ningxia, Xinjiang and some other local governments are still on the PTA new project, which requires some guidance.

The problem of capacity in the cotton market is greatly affected by the national cotton policy. At the same time, the investment in Xinjiang and other regional markets needs attention and planning.

Second, in the context of accelerating consumer demand and accelerating consumption, how to provide effective product supply, "increase variety, brand and quality" should also focus on the domestic demand market.

Third, we must pay attention to the bottleneck problems in the printing and dyeing industry, including standards implementation, enterprise emissions and so on.

The industry needs to find the problem ahead. We should study the technical bottleneck of printing and dyeing problems and carry out active governance.

Fourth, we must pay attention to the cotton problem.

China's cotton market has about 10000000 tons of state cotton stocks, about 2000000 tons of imported cotton yarn each year, and cotton quality is not up to date.

"Cotton problem requires professionals to conduct thematic research.

Under the "supply system reform", cotton needs to be allocated according to market demand, and the cotton system needs to be changed, and the cotton in the Treasury must be resolved.

Wang Tiankai emphasized this way.

He also pointed out that in line with the macroeconomic policy and the textile industry's own conditions, the industry should do the following work: we should grasp the key points and provide effective services in reducing production costs, controlling industrial capacity, controlling operational risks and promoting demand growth.