Most Textile Enterprises In Hebei, Shandong And Henan Provinces Have Insufficient Orders.

It is only two weeks away from the Spring Festival. Basically, all the long distance pportation is closed down. There should be a shuttle bus for short distance pportation, so the sales work of the textile enterprises is basically over. Only a small number of anxious orders are continuing.

For now, the majority

Lack of orders, financial worries, lack of confidence in the future market, not easy to make decisions in the late stage of development.

Most of the large and medium-sized enterprises that do not have early leave are mainly stocked for orders after class.

Do not run difficult enterprises are still making the final effort, according to feedback from a textile enterprise in Shandong years ago

It has not yet come down. Recently, there are fewer shipments and less money back. It can only be saved by raising early debts to save wages. Otherwise, the wages of the workers before the year are not enough.

The pressure is very great.

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According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the total cotton output in 2015 was 5 million 216 thousand tons, and as of January 22nd, the total processing volume reached 4 million 586 thousand tons and sold 2 million 278 thousand tons.

That is to say, the commercial inventory of cotton in the new season is still about 50%, and there is no need to worry about the latter supply.

However, according to the industry, cotton quality is not high in cotton and cotton traders. Later supply can not meet the production demand of high count yarn.

Look at Xinjiang cotton with better quality. From the current public inspection data and our estimate, Xinjiang's cotton output this year is about 3 million 600 thousand tons.

Taking into account the huge increase in consumption in Xinjiang, it is expected that consumption in Xinjiang will reach 700 thousand tons this year. In this way, the remaining 1 million 300 thousand tons of cotton can actually be exported to Xinjiang.

After the release of cotton sales pressure before the Spring Festival, the cotton resources will be reduced after the holiday, and the replenishment of the textile enterprises will support the spot cotton price. Meanwhile, the shortage of warehouse receipts will also support Zheng cotton.

In recent years, the 1605 phase price weakness of zhengmian main contract has risen, which seems to be a rebound trend.

Although the current high cotton storage pressure and the weak pattern of textile consumption remain the same, however, the negative factors have already come to an end in a comprehensive way. Cotton prices are already at the bottom interval pattern, and cotton prices will rise at a later stage under the support of tight warehouse resources.

According to the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report in January, global cotton production continued to decrease, consumption dropped and inventories decreased.

However, although the global cotton consumption ratio is decreasing, it is still at a high level.

High inventory will be the biggest pressure on the cotton price in the later stage.

However, if we exclude domestic inventory data, we can see that the global cotton end inventory and its inventory consumption data are not as obvious as those of previous years.

That is to say, the trend of global cotton will also look at the color of China's cotton stocks.

Domestically, the reduction of output makes the supply and demand of cotton market close to a favorable direction.

Later, we need to pay close attention to the dynamics of the dumping of state-owned cotton stores.

The release of inventory pressure is reflected through the sell-off of State Cotton stores, and the reason why the state stores out the state stores cotton is that the quantity of cotton in the market can not meet the demand of textile enterprises, and the outgoing warehouse is a benign supplement to market resources.

And its specific influence degree depends on the time, quantity and price of the country's storage of cotton, the greater the general quantity and the lower the price, the greater the impact on the market.

At present, the policy of the national cotton storage and rotation policy has not yet been determined, so the impact of the current cotton price can be temporarily shielded.

Secondly, the cost support of cotton price can not be ignored.

The spot cost of cotton in this year is between 12500 yuan and 13000 yuan per ton.

At present, the main contract of Zheng cotton futures fluctuates around 11190 - 11500 yuan / ton, which may be the "iron bottom" of the 1605.