Cotton Prices Are At The Bottom Level.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, the total cotton output in 2015 was 5 million 216 thousand tons, and as of January 22nd, the total processing volume reached 4 million 586 thousand tons and sold 2 million 278 thousand tons.

That is to say, the commercial inventory of cotton in the new season is still about 50%, and there is no need to worry about the latter supply.

However, according to the industry, cotton quality is not high in cotton and cotton traders. Later supply can not meet the production demand of high count yarn.

Look at quality better.

Judging from the current public inspection data and our estimate, Xinjiang's cotton output this year is about 3 million 600 thousand tons.

Taking into account the huge increase in consumption in Xinjiang, it is expected that consumption in Xinjiang will reach 700 thousand tons this year. In this way, the remaining 1 million 300 thousand tons of cotton can actually be exported to Xinjiang.

After the release of cotton sales pressure before the Spring Festival, the cotton resources will be reduced after the holiday, and the replenishment of the textile enterprises will support the spot cotton price. Meanwhile, the shortage of warehouse receipts will also support Zheng cotton.

Recently, the 1605 phase price weakness of zhengmian main contract has risen.

Momentum.

Although the current high cotton storage pressure and the weak pattern of textile consumption remain the same, however, the negative factors have already come to an end in a comprehensive way. Cotton prices are already at the bottom interval pattern, and cotton prices will rise at a later stage under the support of tight warehouse resources.

According to the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report in January, global cotton production continued to decrease, consumption dropped and inventories decreased.

However, although the global cotton consumption ratio is decreasing, it is still at a high level.

High inventory will be the biggest pressure on the cotton price in the later stage.

However, if we exclude domestic inventory data, we can see that the global cotton end inventory and its inventory consumption data are not as obvious as those of previous years.

That is to say, the trend of global cotton will also look at the color of China's cotton stocks.

Domestically, the reduction in production has led to a reduction in output.

The supply and demand face close to the favorable direction.

In the later period, it is necessary to pay close attention to the dynamics of the national storage of cotton.

The release of inventory pressure is reflected through the sell-off of State Cotton stores, and the reason why the state stores out the state stores cotton is that the quantity of cotton in the market can not meet the demand of textile enterprises, and the outgoing warehouse is a benign supplement to market resources.

Its specific influence depends on the time, quantity and price of the national cotton storage. The larger the general quantity and the lower the price, the greater the impact will be on the market.

At present, the policy of the national cotton storage and rotation policy has not yet been determined, so the impact of the current cotton price can be temporarily shielded.

Secondly, the cost support of cotton price can not be ignored.

The spot cost of cotton in this year is between 12500 yuan and 13000 yuan per ton.

At present, the main contract of Zheng cotton futures fluctuates around 11190 - 11500 yuan / ton, which may be the "iron bottom" of the 1605.