Global Risk Assets Have Been Sold Badly

In the latest report, Morgan Stanley pointed out that since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December, the market has seen a severe shock, and the financial environment has been tightened. This is equivalent to raising interest rates four times and adding 25 basis points at a time.

At present, GDP and inflation in the US are hard to meet the forecasts made by Fed officials in December.

According to Bloomberg news, Morgan Stanley chief economist Ellen Zentner pointed out that the Federal Reserve opened its first interest rate increase in ten years last month.

After raising interest rates, the market fluctuated sharply, and the current financial environment was significantly tightened.

Estimates show that this is equivalent to the Fed's four increase in interest rates and 25 basis points at a time.

Since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December,

They were sold badly.

This week, the S & P 500 index fell to 1812 points, down 15% from last year's high point. Crude oil has suffered a sustained decline since December, the most time when it reached 40%.

European, Japanese and Chinese stock markets have fallen from a recent high of 20% to a technical bear market.

Economists predict that the Fed will not act at the January meeting.

At the March meeting, the Fed's chances of raising interest rates were also small.

Recently, Soros, founder of hedge fund bridge, Dario, Gundlach of new debt and Gross of old debt, said that the Fed's interest rate hike was a mistake.

And Gundlach said the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates.

Dario said that the Fed will eventually change its course and embark on more quantitative easing. If things continue to move in the wrong direction, it will lead to economic depression.

At the December meeting,

Officials' interest rate scatter shows that this year is expected to raise interest rates by four times, raising 25 basis points each time.

At that time, officials estimated that the GDP growth rate of the United States could reach 2.4% this year, and the core inflation level of excluding food and energy could reach 1.6%, and the unemployment rate would continue to decline to 4.7%.

Morgan Stanley believes that from the current situation, Fed officials' forecasts for economic data are hard to achieve.

Judging from the market trend, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates would reduce the GDP by 0.2 percentage points this year, reduce core inflation by 0.1 percentage points, reduce GDP by 0.3 percentage points next year, and core inflation by 0.15 percentage points, according to the market trend.