Macro: Policy Lax And Expectation Of Reform

The stock market fluctuated in 2015, and bull and bear markets were introduced in half a year, giving a vivid lesson to investors.

2016 is coming. Next year, what will happen to our economic policy, how big the stock market is, what direction of investment opportunities and how investors should grasp it, and we will present the stock market picture for readers next year by combining information and opinions from all sides.

Recent macro data show that the economic slowdown is still not improving: in November, manufacturing PMI was low, PPI was flat, electricity consumption was still large, rail freight increased sharply, all pointed to industrial investment fatigue, and exports were still deteriorating.

From the weakness of the production side and the downturn of demand side, China's economic growth rate in 2016 is still likely to continue to moderate down to 6.7%, and the shadow of deflation will still be enveloped in China's macro economy.

However, taking into account the cautious attitude of the Central Committee of 13th Five-Year and the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee, China's economic growth rate may not be less than 6.5% in the next five years.

2015

After hitting 5178.19 points, it fell sharply, the lowest to 2850.71 points, and reached 3678.27 points after three months' rebound.

In terms of measurement, the Shanghai Composite Index fell back in November, and in December it is expected to receive a shrinking small line, which shows that the rebound kinetic energy is declining.

In the light of mainstream organizations' view, the market is likely to run in a concussion in 2016. Considering the introduction of the stock index fusing mechanism, it is expected that the volatility of the stock index will converge significantly in 2016, and it is very difficult to have a big bull market in the first half of 2015, and it is very difficult to see a continuous decline after June 2015.

In 2016, the central bank's monetary policy will maintain a broad, but sustained, wide price range.

It is expected that interest rates will be reduced by 25-50 basis points in 2016 and the deposit reserve ratio of large institutions will be reduced to 15%.

The fiscal policy will be more active, the downward pressure on the revenue side and the increase in demand for the expenditure side will widen the fiscal deficit.

In December 14th, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee pointed out the general direction for next year.

The meeting stressed that in order to further implement the innovation driven strategy, we should actively and steadily promote the survival of the fittest of enterprises, help enterprises to reduce costs, resolve real estate inventories, expand effective supply, guard against and defuse financial risks, deepen reform and opening up, and grasp the construction of "one belt and one road".

Take the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, the pressure above 3650 points is to be digested for a short time. In the first quarter of 2016, the Shanghai composite index had a higher probability of maintaining shock consolidation, with a supporting level of 3300 points and a pressure level of 3700 points.

Taking into account the favorable news factors in the first quarter, it is expected that the volatility of the stock index will be higher.

In the two quarter, the Shanghai composite index may be able to find a breakthrough direction after continuous consolidation. If there is any significant benefit and turnover, the Shanghai composite index may hit 4000 points.

Three, fourth quarter due to uncertainties in various factors, the possibility of large market is small.