Stock Market And Bond Market Have A Relatively Short Falling Probability.

The Fed's Conference on interest rates has decided to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and the new federal funds target rate will stay between 0.25% and 0.50%.

Haitong macro believes that the Fed's interest rate means that the global liquidity inflection point.

Specifically,

First, global liquidity: the inflection point appears! The US dollar is the world's faucet, which accounts for more than 50% of the world's foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange pactions, and the currencies of other countries are mainly tied to the US dollar.

Forced to follow the United States.

Therefore, the US dollar interest rate represents a formal turning point in global liquidity.

Second, interest rate path: enter the interest rate cycle, at least two times in 16 years.

。

16 years to raise interest rates at least two times, the interest rate level at the end of 16 should be above 1%, predict the end of the current US interest rate increase or in 2019, the federal funds rate will reach about 3%-3.5%.

Third.

It is bound to be turbulent and risk prevention is the first.

The US interest rate increase is the biggest risk in 16 years, especially in emerging markets. We must deal with it cautiously.

The debt risks of Malaysia, Argentina, Chile, Indonesia, Russia and Brazil deserve our vigilance.

Fourth, the foreign exchange market: the US dollar has a weak probability of short-term weakness, the high interest rate emerging currencies are breathing, and the pound or Euro can rebound.

The interest rate is expected to be realized, and the US dollar index or peak will fall.

As the economy recovers, the pound or euro will strengthen.

Fifth, capital market: stock debt short-term fall probability is bigger, highly alert to junk debt risk.

The stock market and bond market in the US and emerging markets are likely to fall short in the near future.

Add interest to a large number of bear market, the risk of garbage debt is worthy of high vigilance!

Sixth, commodities: the bulk market or the continuation of the downturn will not exclude a phased rebound, and the economic decline of the producer countries will be difficult to change in the short term.

The Fed's interest rate hike has caught up with the big change in the commodity market.

However, it does not rule out the US dollar's decline, which will bring about a phased rebound in commodities.

The major producers will still suffer a lot of "cold winter".

Seventh, China: the pressure of devaluation is increasing, the space for reducing interest rates is limited, and the reform and pformation are accelerated.

Entering the interest rate cycle, it is estimated that there will be at least two additional interest rates next year.

Emerging markets will be affected and volatile, and stock market and bond market will have a short-term probability of falling.