Demand For Gold Is Rising, And The Market Has Gradually Reached Equilibrium.

In the third quarter of 2015, the demand for solid gold increased by 7% over the same period last year. This is due to the increase in official purchases and the good retail situation of gold bars and gold coins.

From the market perspective, the third quarter of 2015, India restored the status of the largest gold consumer.

The total consumption of gold in the first three quarters of India amounted to 642 tons, exceeding that of China's 63 tons.

The consumption of jewellery in India increased by 5% in the third quarter of 2015 compared with last year, reaching 193 tons, the largest single consumption since the first quarter of 2011, and the highest level of consumption since the third quarter of 2008.

55 tons.

Investment increased by 30% over the same period last year, the highest level in the India market since the fourth quarter of 2013.

The gold medal market in India in the third quarter was mainly due to the lowest gold price in India since August 2011.

In the third quarter of 2015, the total value of gold imports in India reached 263 tons, up 23% from the same period last year. This is also the largest quarterly import volume in India so far this year.

Consumers are generally cautious, and the uncertainty of the dollar's first rate hike continues to investors.

Bring pressure on.

That is to say, continued low inflation and emerging market concerns have digested the US dollar rate hike, which has temporarily raised the price of gold.

According to the latest data released by the US Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC), by October 13th, the number of long positions in gold futures trading reached the highest level since May 2015, and the number of short positions declined after reaching the highest point in July, reaching the lowest level in March 2015.

The holdings of the gold trading open index fund dropped by 61 tons in the third quarter, although buying rebounded in October.

Gold prices are expected to fall back to less than $1100 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2015, and the average gold price in 2015 is expected to reach $1159 an ounce.

Gold will continue to suffer downward pressure unless there is a definite time and scale for the normalization of US dollar interest rates.

Other disadvantages include low inflation expectations and investor confidence in precious metals.

That is to say, by the end of the year, quarterly gold demand will have some positive effects on gold prices, and next year's gold trend is likely to be optimistic.

Gold demand rebounded in the third quarter after a sluggish second quarter.

Gold demand in the second quarter of 2015 was the lowest level in the same period since 2011.

The total demand for gold in the third quarter of 2015 amounted to 196 tons, a slight increase of 3% over the same period last year.

Many factors brought about the rise of gold demand in the third quarter.

First, the excellent performance of the domestic stock market has basically ended. Investors have lost confidence in the stock market. Investors are turning to gold and replacing gold with gold.

Another factor is the announcement of the depreciation of the renminbi in August 11, 2015.

The central bank's official announcement has led investors to worry about the trend devaluation of the renminbi, thereby turning gold into a risk aversion asset, although many investors still prefer to use the US dollar as the ultimate hedge asset.

At the same time, in June 2015, the central bank announced that it increased its holdings of 604 tons of gold and announced that it would increase its holdings every month in the third quarter.

stay

On the supply side, preliminary estimates for the third quarter of the world's gold production reached 851 tons, basically stable, a slight increase of 1% over the same period last year.

It is estimated that the manufacturer's behavior of releasing the hedging for the existing volume has increased, and the delivery behavior in hedging has exceeded the latest hedging behavior.

The supply of Regenerated Gold maintained steady growth in the second quarter and increased by 3% in the third quarter of 2015, mainly due to the significant increase in the supply of Regenerated Gold in India and Turkey, which increased by 48% and 154% respectively.

Excluding these two countries, the global supply of regenerated gold fell by 5% compared with the same period last year.

As the total supply of the market increased only slightly, and the demand for real gold increased by 7%, the market oversupply of gold in the third quarter of 2015 dropped to 51 tons.