The Central Bank Of China Is More Interested In Marketization.

The role of the central bank can not be deviated, and on the issue of interest rates, the central bank should emphasize more "control", rather than too much emphasis on how interest rate marketization is good and how important it is.

This is also a way to prevent the market from misreading interest rate liberalization as a liberalization of interest rates.

Of course, we understand the central bank's role as the key promoter of the interest rate marketization. Nevertheless, we do not think that the central bank should abandon the role of "market promoter", and more importantly, we should emphasize that we are the role of "market controller", a mechanism with tools, measures and capabilities.

I have always had a feeling that the Central Bank of China "is right.

They are more interested "because they always talk about the marketization of interest rates as" great achievements ", and say that interest rate control after interest rate marketization is often silent because they talk too little and too little.

No? There are three key questions: first, whether the central bank can directly control the benchmark interest rate system -- whether the central bank's benchmark interest rate system is completed? Secondly, whether the entire market interest rate system is straightened out? If these two problems remain unsolved, how can we achieve the interest rate liberalization? How can we control the interest rate marketization? What is the difference between failure control and letting go?

Therefore, I am more concerned about "how to control".

I think there are at least two levels of interest in the central bank's benchmark interest rate, and no effective progress has yet been seen.

First, in China, what is the interest rate of the central bank, which is similar to the US "federal benchmark interest rate"? Who will replace the current deposit and loan benchmark interest rate without this interest rate? Without this interest rate, how will the interest rate increase and interest rate cut be implemented in the future? If it is the interest rate, why not tell the market now? Why not let it enter the market cultivation now? How can it confirm its validity if it is too short?

Second, interest rate commodities are lacking.

For example, short term interest rate merchandise pactions under one year are active and sufficient, and pricing is effective; while there are some products in the 3 to 5 year end interest rates, the paction is fairly acceptable; but where are the long end interest products from 7 to 30 years? How can the central bank observe the long end interest rate? How to determine the interest rate? Is the long end interest rate very important? Because, of course, it often reflects the long-term strategic intentions of the country.

such as

The purpose of the "twisted operation" is to lower the long end interest rate, thus reflecting the strategic intention of "re industrialization" in the United States.

Third, so far, the market interest rate is still chaotic. How does the central bank straighten out? For example, after the interest rate cut, the benchmark interest rate of bank deposits has dropped to 1.5%, but the Shibor of the money market in the same period (Shanghai interbank offered rate) is still near 3.3.

Obviously, the credit rating of interbank offered rate should be higher than that of commercial banks.

Therefore, the interbank offered rate is much higher than the interest rate of bank deposits. It belongs to the "interest rate upside down". Similarly, the interest rate between the central bank and commercial financial institutions, which is formed according to the market supply and demand, and any period of maturity is higher than the bank deposit interest rate. This is not an inverted one. If the central bank passes a period of operation is Shibor close to 1.5% a year, will the overnight Shibor be lower than the excess deposit reserve interest rate 0.99%?

The sudden contraction?

Of course, at that time, the central bank will cut down or simply cancel the excess deposit reserve interest rate.

This is not a problem, but an attempt to show that the central bank still has a lot of work to do before it fully implements the interest rate liberalization.

Please don't just regard the "orderly advance" of interest rate marketization as a political achievement, and they can't help themselves.

On the contrary, I firmly believe that the higher the degree of financial marketization in China, the more important the role of central bank controllers is, and the more attention should be paid to the role of their controllers.

It is certain that the pressure will be greater and more difficult in the future, while the central bank has no chance of trial and error.

I think the question of "central bank role positioning" is very important now.

Because China is close to the full liberalization of interest rates, and how to achieve effective market control under the conditions of interest rate liberalization is central to the central bank's efforts.

There is no doubt that deregulation is easy, but we must truly "never let go of it" and realize the formation and regulation mechanism of interest rate marketization so as to realize the regulation and supervision of the central bank's interest rate system and realize the sensitive and effective pmission of monetary policy. This is the biggest test of the wisdom and ability of the central bank.