The Impact Of Prudent Monetary Policy And Stock Market Effect On Us

Good media often make unprofessional interpretation of the PBC's monetary policy measures.

The latest jokes are that the pilot of the people's Bank of China's credit assets remortgage loan is regarded as the Chinese version of the quantitative easing QE, and 7 trillion of the funds are draining. This also shows that investors are highly concerned about China's monetary policy measures, and hope to understand the specific objectives of the central bank's monetary policy measures and its impact on the economy, especially the stock market.

I understand from the professional point of view that the current monetary policy of the people's Bank of China is moderately relaxed under the premise of a robust framework. This kind of monetary policy is fully consistent with the current economic situation.

Advantageous.

Now these two conditions are all available, and the government's intention to do more is more urgent than that of investors. More than ten thousand billion rescue funds are set in the stock market.

At this point, do not rush to make a stock market quotation, wait for when, and wait for 2850 double bottoms? This may not be realistic in the fourth quarter of this year.

First of all, China must stick to a prudent monetary policy.

Generally speaking, there are two prerequisites for a country to implement loose monetary policy: first, the financial system crisis, such as the collapse of a large number of bank financial institutions; secondly, the economic downturn has led to a substantial increase in the unemployment rate.

Although China had a previous stock market crash, it did not spread to the overall financial system crisis.

In addition, although China's economy has declined, it has been relatively stable, and there has been no mass unemployment, compared with the US, European and Japanese economies.

It is also in the middle and high stages.

The current economic and financial situation determines the deepening of reform, and the most appropriate way to promote pformation and sound monetary policy.

Therefore, each time the people's Bank of China lowered its interest rate and cut interest rates, it announced that prudent monetary policy remained unchanged.

Secondly, moderate easing in the framework of prudent monetary policy reflects flexibility and pertinence.

In the three quarter, the people's Bank of China released data. In the first three quarters of this year, new loans increased by 9 trillion and 900 billion, an increase of 14.9% compared with the same period last year, and the money supply increased by 13.1% compared with the same period last year. In September this year, new RMB loans increased by 1 trillion and 50 billion yuan, a record high in the same period.

The above data fully reflect the moderation of inclusions.

The standard neutral monetary policy is generally the increase in money supply or credit scale, which is equal to the increase of GDP and the increase of prices.

So far this year, the sum of China's GDP plus price is hard to exceed 10%, while the supply of loans and credit has increased by more than two and 3 to 4 percentage points.

This amplitude exceeds the average amplitude of previous years, and it is a specific measure to increase financial support for the real economy.

From this perspective, the whole society's capital and liquidity are relatively loose, and the economy, entity and stock market are not short of money.

Third, at present

It's very good for the stock market.

First, a large number of funds can not digest the real economy, resulting in lower interest rates in the money market. The yield of financial products and the yields of treasury bonds are all low. The rich individuals and enterprises have difficulty in capital allocation and lack of allocation. Some of them will inevitably return to the stock market. Secondly, the people's Bank of China, the Banking Regulatory Commission and the securities and Futures Commission have not issued any documents that prohibit bank funds from entering the stock market while clearing the off-site funds. This means that some of the credit funds can enter the stock market through legal channels.

How can management prohibit bank capital from entering the stock market? This is the basis for the bull market in the stock market from last year to May.