Whether The Central Bank Can Release Water Successfully Depends On High-Risk Assets.

When quantitative easing is being conducted in the world's major economies, people are also eyeing the Central Bank of China. Every time the central bank makes policies, people rely on quantitative easing.

No, the new stimulus is coming again, but whether it belongs to quantitative easing is another controversial issue.

In October 10th, the central bank issued a notice, decided to carry out the pilot project of credit assets pledge and refinancing in the early stage of Shandong and Guangdong, and form a replicable experience based on the promotion of the pilot projects in 9 provinces and municipalities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hubei, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Beijing and Beijing.

In this regard, there are two kinds of straightforward explanations: Huang Sheng, chairman of Xi investment network, said, "the important thing is to promote the pledge of credit assets and refinance. This is the real currency of the foundation. It's the Chinese style QE!" independent economist Wu Yubin even said, "this is the starting number of China's quantitative easing."

If it is to reduce the interest rate is to kill a pig knife, then the quantitative easing is the sword slaughter sword.

The central bank's announcement is rather vague. If possible, the central bank will directly deny that the pledge reloan is quantitative easing.

Quantitative easing is one way to increase credit and print money one by one, but credit assets pledge and reloan are different.

As we all know, the "three rural" and small and micro enterprises loan risk is higher, is the central bank should be pformed into investment banking institutions? In fact, high risk assets discount or high risk, can not solve the fundamental problem, the central bank's balance sheet is actually expanding.

The central bank's move is afraid of both sides.

From this point of view, scholars believe that the central bank should not carry out the policy of loosening and push the pformation of enterprises, and doubt that the central bank can not withstand the pressure and embarked on the path of quantitative easing.

The two sides differ widely in forecasting the extent of easing, ranging from tens of billions of dollars to trillion yuan.

In fact, the central bank has been walking the golden mean, like walking between the economy and the debt.

From the past two years of practice, the cost of living has risen regardless of the economy.

Moreover, the debt market takes the bull, and the TOEFL market often has a short spring.

The central bank is doing this to increase its currency distribution channels.

The central bank announcement also acknowledged that this is a reloan, that is, a means of issuing the underlying currency.

Prior to China's refinancing, the central bank's refinancing of commercial banks is a complete credit loan, and refinancing to professional banks is also one of the channels for money supply.

The original distribution channels of basic money are not smooth.

The change of China's basic currency mainly depends on changes in foreign exchange, open market operations and changes in fiscal deposits.

In the era of favorable balance of trade, the amount of foreign exchange increased, and the circulation of China's basic currency would increase exponentially.

In the context of the sharp decline in foreign exchange holdings in 2012, the explanation of foreign exchange holdings on the change of base money has dropped significantly. People hope that the central bank will maintain adequate liquidity.

But it has been proved that the decline and reduction of foreign exchange can not be equated.

In fact, over the past two years, the decline in foreign exchange holdings has increased year by year, and the central bank has not substantially lowered its quota.

In order to open up new channels, the central bank's monetary policy toolbox now has seven treasures: credit assets mortgage reloan, standing loan facility (SLF), open market short-term liquidity adjustment tool (SLO), mortgage supplementary loan (PSL), medium term loan convenience (MLF), short-term reloan and statutory reserve requirement ratio.

The above tools have short time and have

As well as the characteristics of high uncertainty, taking SLF as an example, the loan period is generally within 3 months, and the interest rate is 4.5%~5.5%, which is usually used to regulate short-term funds and stabilize market interest rates.

This shows that in the view of the central bank, the above measures can flexibly regulate market interest rates and liquidity.

From SLF, MLF and other tools, we can see that the central bank is unwilling to issue a basic currency on a large scale and release a clear and relaxed signal to the market.

For that reason, those claims

It is also understandable that people who want to implement massive easing policies to stimulate the real economy should be complains of the central bank.

Refinancing of credit assets is somewhat different. Now the central bank is expanding.

The scope of mortgage is both forced and voluntary.

Previously, only a high level of credit pledge, such as bonds, central bank bills, high-grade credit bonds and other mortgages to refinance, pledge is not enough, more and more debt, and the issuance of basic currency is insufficient, so the scope of collateral products is expanded.

The central bank's announcement put forward that the pilot project of credit assets pledge refinancing will help solve the problem of relatively inadequate collateral for qualified local financial institutions, and guide them to expand the "three rural" and small and micro enterprises credit, reduce social financing costs and support the real economy.