Hong Kong Stocks Are Dead And Stocks And Other Reference Indicators Are Also Poor.

On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed 20840, down 0.45%, trading volume was very poor 69 billion 300 million Hong Kong dollars, roughly equivalent to 56 billion yuan, less than the A shares turnover (Tuesday, China's two cities traded 840 billion yuan, equivalent to more than trillion Hong Kong dollars), it can be said that the HKEx has lost liquidity, this is clearly not a suitable market.

In addition to the two tier market, this year, the famous Hong Kong stock market IPO has fallen sharply in the opening price, resulting in a lot of losses in the A shares (please pay attention to the public number: Boeing aircraft).

On Friday's close, the S & P 500 index fell 1.53% to 1921.22 points, Dow Jones industry fell 1.66%, reported 16102.38 points, and Nasdaq composite index fell 1.05%, reporting 4683.92 points.

Europe's Stoxx50 plunged 2.75% and the Nikkei index also plunged 2.15%.

This is probably because the number of non-agricultural figures is much lower than expected.

Apple shares have fallen below the annual line.

However, Chinese factors are increasingly becoming the vane of the US stock market trend. In August 25th, the stock index futures market in the United States was rarely fusing as a result of China's stock market crash.

Worse than ever, in August, the Nikkei Hongkong PMI (purchasing managers' index, the dividing line of 50) was only 44.4, down sharply from 48.2 in July.

This is the worst since April 2009 and is likely to continue to deteriorate.

44.4, this is a disastrous figure.

Hongkong people hate the number 4, because it is not auspicious, 97 years of Hongkong return to the big dinner, did not bring 4 table cards, but in August PMI to millions of Hongkong people brought 3 4.

This means that the contraction of the economy is quite frightening.

Separately, purchases, production cuts, layoffs, new orders, and mainland business have shrunk dramatically.

In particular, the level of employment has hit the biggest decline in 12 years.

With the further development, the Oriental Pearl, the chief executive and all the citizens of Hongkong are likely to enter the economic emergency.

This is a heavy blow to the prospects of Hong Kong stocks.

If compared with historical P / E, Hang Seng seems cheap.

However, it is not necessarily possible to use a relatively complex cyclical adjusted price earnings ratio (CAPE).

The latest update of Wellershoff & Partners CAPE shows that the Hong Kong stock CAPE is roughly 16.5, and the fair value is 14.3, that is to say, even if the Hong Kong stock falls by 20%, it will never be "very cheap"; if the data of Reserch and Affiliates are used, the MSCI Hongkong index is currently about 19 times, slightly higher than the median 18 of 1982.

The above reasons are different for statistical starting point, for reference only.

The correlation with Hongkong's valuation has been declining.

From the political perspective, the mainland strongly maintains A shares.

But it is impossible to use state funds to save Hongkong's international capital.

In September 2nd, before the long holidays, ICBC A shares were forced into the trading limit, while H-shares fell by 2%.

In the future, I am afraid that the national team will continue to concentrate on firepower, and the A share index, which is headed by financial stocks, will continue to be bleak.

At present, about 50% of the total in two places.

It will continue to expand.

However, there is also one point in bright color. Recently, Hong Kong stock traders generally speculated that Macao gambling stocks may have been safely built after being repeatedly suppressed by the central anti-corruption policy.

Because when the economic outlook is weak, it is often a good prospect for betting, horse racing, online games and cinemas.

Last Friday, gambling stocks began to rebound slightly.

During the long holidays, major market capitalization stocks such as Ali and Jingdong led the market.

The general decline has also clouded the A shares on Monday.

With the latest rumours, Google's new products may enter the Chinese market and are currently under negotiation.

If rumors are true, this will have an extreme impact on Baidu, which has so far declined relatively little. The number of short selling is likely to rise sharply, because Baidu's current search monopoly is widely believed to be blocked by the Chinese government.

Once Baidu has failed, and Ali has stabilized and broken IPO, the Jingdong has dropped sharply.

Another important reference point for China's opening up, the Nikkei index, is also very dim.

According to Mizuho Securities, foreign investors generally saw Asia and Japan last week, and sold only 18 billion 500 million dollars in Japanese stocks and futures.

The weekly outflow of funds has not been seen for 11 years.

There is no doubt that overseas investors have decided to leave Japan and Asia on a large scale. The reason is that it is not important to ignore Japanese exports, China's growth or the US interest rate hike.

Therefore, before the opening of Monday, China's stock market is facing a very unfavorable surrounding situation and reference indicators.