PTA The Rise Of Nirvana Is Divided Into Three Steps.

The reasons for the decline of PTA and the conditions for future rise are, at present, the smaller space for the deterioration of the bad market in the PTA market, which means that there is little room for the decline of PTA prices. At the same time, the three rising conditions are difficult to achieve in a short time. Therefore, the PTA market will not see a trend of bottoming up and rising sharply this year.

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the "culprits" of the PTA cut. When will oil price rise? The oil price collapse is caused by the imbalance between supply and demand caused by shale oil technology. The slowdown in China's economic growth is likely to result in a significant increase in global demand in the short term. The stabilization of oil prices depends on a global reduction in production. Several major investment banks believe that at least the end of 2016, the supply and demand pattern of the crude oil market can achieve a new balance.

Supply should be compressed. Overcapacity should be the main reason for the PTA slump. Supply and demand at both ends, not only did not decline in fact, but rather increased, but demand growth is relatively lower than the PTA capacity growth. Once the problem of excess supply of PTA is solved, the day of PTA's "rebirth of Nirvana" is coming. At present, the new capacity of PTA has basically been put into operation. Considering that the government will further control the approval of the projects in excess industries, the possibility of further increase in PTA production capacity in the future is very small. When PTA prices are low, manufacturers are losing money, and everyone is sticking to it. Although eliminated surplus capacity The cycle is longer, but this year's collapse of the Far East petrochemical industry has marked the beginning of this process.

Demand needs to be released. It is inevitable that China's economic growth rate will decline, even if economic upgrading is achieved through industrial upgrading, such as PTA's primary production industry. demand It is also difficult to see substantial growth. Especially due to the rise of labor costs, garment processing enterprises in Europe and the United States have been returning to their own countries or transferring to Southeast Asia. The demand for domestic PTA is even more difficult to counter attack. The author believes that the way out for the PTA industry may be to export to Southeast Asia after the production of polyester, and its implementation is very long.

As we all know, before 2010, with the development of economy, China Textile industry The demand for PTA is increasing rapidly, while the capacity of domestic PTA can not meet the demand, and a large number of imported PTA is needed in China. In addition, after the subprime crisis, the United States implemented the monetary easing policy. With the overflowing of liquidity, commodities opened a continuous upward door. However, after 2010, China's economic transition has arrived, and downstream demand continues to slump. At this time, the PTA capacity of pre investment was released again, especially in the second half of 2014, when the crude oil slump reduced to PTA, which resulted in the price of the main contract of PTA dropped from 12396 yuan / ton to 4352 yuan / ton. Basically, it was "where to stand and where to go again".

However, the ancient Chinese classics not only have a famous saying about extreme decline, but also in the book of changes. Is PTA going to be great? I think this is a must. Stocks may become worthless because of business failures, and PTA is, after all, a commodity, and its price can never be downhill.