PTA Seems To Be Reasonable That The Red Envelopes Are Coming And Going.

At present, many factors have limited the PTA price lifting role, the demand is weak and the crude oil oscillation has seriously dragged down the PTA market.

Therefore, the PTA "red envelope" market is in a hurry and seems reasonable.

"The current trend of box oscillations reflects the present situation of PTA fundamental planes."

Jinyou futures analyst Wei Lin said that the reason for the current multi market is that the PTA device has a large-scale maintenance plan and the PTA device of Xiang Lu Petrochemical has not been opened, making the supply of spot market tightened, and the PTA futures warehouse receipt is constantly being digested.

In addition, the downstream and terminal markets still have expectations for the traditional peak season, while the rigid demand for low replenishment still exists, and the supply and demand side has support.

And the chips of the empty side are mainly crude oil prices, which are in the downstream channel for a long time, forming a larger downward pressure on the relevant varieties of the crude oil sector.

"The biggest bad factor at present is the problem of crude oil."

Wu Xiaofen of China silk net also told futures Daily reporters that the global imbalance between supply and demand became more and more serious, which made the US crude oil futures price fall to 40 US dollars / barrel, and crude oil prices were repeatedly low to drive the bearish sentiment of the polyester market.

Wu Xiaofen analysis said: "even if downstream demand is warmer, crude oil is difficult to build up, raw material prices continue to decline, and downstream enterprises are cautious in stocking up, and demand for PTA will be suppressed.

In addition, in recent years, the polyester industry chain has obviously weakened seasonally, and there is still a big uncertainty in the demand for terminal market.

When it comes to the trend of PTA's later stage, the industry generally believes that the key lies in whether the crude oil price can be stabilized and whether the downstream polyester demand can be substantially improved.

Under the background of poor export performance and slowing domestic macro-economic growth, the key to the improvement of downstream polyester demand lies in whether the cost side can play an effective driving role.

"Crude oil is the main determinant of polyester industry chain."

Wang Yong, director of Hangzhou Youdao Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. told the futures Daily reporter that now the downstream is looking at crude oil and PTA futures. If crude oil falls, the willingness to buy goods downstream will be greatly reduced.

It is undeniable whether the stabilization of crude oil prices will become the primary factor in the current PTA industry chain and the turning point of most commodity prices.

In Wei Lin's view, the impact of crude oil prices on PTA is not only reflected in the cost pmission mechanism of the industrial chain, but also plays an irreplaceable role in the mentality and expectation of the whole market.

Wei Lin explained: "now the upstream and downstream are staring at the price of crude oil. If the price of crude oil can not stop and rebound, the entire PTA market will be dragged down by its difficulties and it is difficult to get better, so this tug of war will continue to be staged in the short term."

Although it has entered the late August, it is far from theoretical.

The time point is not far away, but the actual demand of the market is not very satisfactory.

At present, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the terminal is only 62%, which is 4 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The polyester load continued to decline to around 70%, the lowest point this year (except during the Spring Festival).

Polyester and the downstream market are more confused and less confident for the next traditional peak season.

"In August 18th,

When researching the terminal weaving and demand, businessmen generally reflect.

Worse than last year, especially the foreign trade export orders, the rate of start-up is not enough, and the market outlook is much more confused.

Wang Guangqian, a futures analyst at Soochow, said that at present, the global procurement of big European and American manufacturers has led to insufficient export orders for domestic and foreign trade, and orders for domestic brands have ended. Wholesale markets are also facing a shortage of orders. Polyester production and marketing have gone smoothly after the good turn of last week.

Mr Wu Xiaofen also admitted that from the actual research, the demand for terminal is not optimistic. The overall order of the weaving Market is still in a rarefied state. The overall inventory of grey fabric is high, and the capital chain is tight. The purchase of raw materials is still in the state of buying and buying, and the demand for raw materials is still limited in the short term.