Supply And Demand Forecast Parabolic Cotton Price Trend Reversal

U.S.A

Monthly analysis of the company believes that the price of ICE futures continued to slow down in July as a whole, and the first break from the 63-68 cent consolidation interval in August broke down, but the subsequent USDA monthly report sharply reduced the cotton production and ending inventory in the US 2015/16 year, leading to a sharp rebound in cotton prices.

In August, the US Department of agriculture forecast a sharp reduction in global cotton production and revised the historical data on consumption.

Globally, global production has been reduced by 2 million 500 thousand to 109 million bales in 2015/16, and consumption has increased by 210 thousand to 114 million 600 thousand packs.

After the adjustment, global final inventory dropped by 2 million 900 thousand to 105 million 200 thousand bales.

Nevertheless, global cotton inventories in 2015/16 are still far higher than the historical long-term level, and the inventory consumption ratio is still 92%.

From the perspective of global production, the biggest adjustments include the United States (from 1 million 400 thousand to 13 million 100 thousand packages), China (1 million to 26 million packages) and India (500 thousand pack to 29 million pack).

Meanwhile, Brazil's output increased by 250 thousand packs to 7 million bales, Australia's output increased by 200 thousand to 2 million 200 thousand bales, Pakistan's output increased by 200 thousand to 10 million 200 thousand packs, and Uzbekistan's output was reduced by 200 thousand to 3 million 700 thousand packages.

From the perspective of global consumption, according to the trade data of 2011/12, Bangladesh's import and consumption of cotton in recent years is about 1000000 higher than its previous forecast. Therefore, the historical data of Bangladesh consumption have been comprehensively revised.

Bangladesh's consumption increased by 1 million 100 thousand packs to 5 million 700 thousand bales in 2015/16. China's consumption dropped by 500 thousand packages to 34 million packages. India reduced 250 thousand packages to 26 million packages. Pakistan reduced 100 thousand packages to 10 million 900 thousand packages, and Vietnam reduced 100 thousand packets to 4 million 700 thousand packages.

China's Taiwan region increased 100 thousand packs to 925 thousand bales, and Turkey reduced 100 thousand packs to 6 million 500 thousand bales.

The response of ICE futures to the USDA monthly report is mainly due to a significant adjustment in the US supply and demand forecast.

Judging from historical experience, it is not uncommon for USDA to substantially adjust US production and demand data in the August forecast, because the prediction base in July and August is totally different.

From May to July, the new annual forecast for USDA was based on data statistics and analysis, while August was based on the field survey of cotton fields to predict yield and output.

This year, many of the United States

There is a great deal of uncertainty in the area of cotton sowing area, yield and yield per unit area. Therefore, the prediction based on field survey in August has changed greatly.

According to the US Department of agriculture's prediction in August, this year the United States

The actual area decreased by 100 thousand acres to 8 million 900 thousand acres, and the abandoned area increased by 500 thousand acres to 1 million acres. The average yield per unit area decreased by 3%.

The above adjustment resulted in a reduction of 1 million 400 thousand packages in the US cotton yield, a decrease of 10%.

Affected by the sharp decline in production forecasts, the US cotton export and final inventory declined in 2015/16.

In 2014/15, the US cotton export forecast increased by 200 thousand packs to 11 million 200 thousand packages, resulting in a 500 thousand drop in final inventory.

In 2015/16, the US cotton export forecast fell by 800 thousand to 10 million packs due to the sharp decline in US cotton production forecast.

The above situation shows that the tight supply of cotton in the United States may become a factor to support cotton prices in 2015/16.