A Share Market Is Now The Three Most Dangerous Overshoot Rebound Is Coming To An End.

today

Plunging, stock index continued to fall 3900, 3800 two integer pass, the largest single day decline in 8 years, two cities, 90% shares fell, more than 1000 shares limit.

At the close, the Shanghai stock index fell 8.48% to 3725.56 points, trading 721 billion 300 million yuan; Shenzhen index fell 7.59% to 12493.05 points, and clinch a deal of 667 billion 700 million yuan.

On the disk, the whole sector fell, and finance, pportation facilities and buildings fell by more than 9%.

On Monday, the major indexes of A share collapsed, and the three sides of the stock market also showed a fierce threat. Investors should be alert to the risk of sudden fall of stocks.

The first big threat is the sharp reduction in the stocks and the sharp increase in the rate of decline.

When the market is unstable and the strength of stocks falls, there will be a huge backfire, a loose chip, a dull newspaper, a rebounding volume and a main warehouse.

Be sure to change stocks in a high-profile warehouse.

Secondly, the market has rebounded in the near future, but the volume has dropped. The diving on Friday also released the amount of money. This shows that a lot of funds are coming out of the stock market on a rebound.

This ferocious means that after a short-term rebound of more than 20%, the funds will not be enough to catch up and the chips have been loosened. This is bound to be bad for the market to go up.

Finally, the Fed's rate hike is expected to increase sharply, and IMF urges China to withdraw from the rescue measures.

In the face of external market turbulence, technical pressure and other factors, the current market crash or implied the first round of overfall rebound near the end of the vicious phase.

In addition, since the low point in July 9th, the main index of A shares has rebounded by 30%, but investors have not yet reached a consistent expectation for the medium term market, or even a little cautious.

In the view of Everbright Securities, the total

Whether or not to continue to be relaxed and traditional demand rebound, how to stabilize the market stability and how to reform the measures are four problems that A shares need to solve in order to get out of "chaos".

Among them, the first two represent the matching of monetary policy and fiscal policy and decide the liquidity background of the market; stock market policy is the most important variable in the current capital market; reform is the strongest endogenous logic of the bull market.

Since there is no definitive answer to these four questions, there is no need to overpredict the medium-term trend.

In the short term, stock market funds still seem to support the structural market under the policy protection.

From a medium-term perspective, the market is still in a weak balance after the rescue market. In this pattern, market funds and

Supply is weakening and inflation is hard to come by. Structural rise can be expected.

In this weak balance of the medium term pattern, the short term market overfall will be completed gradually, differentiation will gradually become apparent, and the market will maintain greater possibility of interval shocks.

In addition, the withdrawal of the national team is likely to be a slow process, and the actual impact on the market will be smaller.

Under the weak market equilibrium pattern, the trend of the national team has become the focus of the market.

We have pointed out that the "escort" strength of the national team to the market will weaken as the market stabilizes, but it will not withdraw completely in the short term.

From the international experience, in the past, we have adopted a bailout fund or a stabilization fund to deal with the stock market turbulence in China, Hongkong, the United States, Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan and Germany from the beginning to the exit time. The shortest period is 4 years in China's Hongkong and the United States, and the longest is 17 years in Korea. We believe that the withdrawal of the national team is more likely to be a "small walk".

Under the market weak balance pattern, the market general inflation will be difficult to achieve, and the structural market can be expected.

On the whole, the market is more likely to show a pattern of interval shocks, and the trading opportunities are the main ones.

After the market is down and back up, the market differentiation will be obvious. Investors' attention to the fundamentals of the company will be strengthened, that is, the cash flow of the company will be more valued in the future.

As a result, real growth will show greater resilience, while traditional industries will gain market attention due to the limited growth space and the defensive characteristics of the market.

CICC believes that market sentiment has been restored, but considering that the early fall of the market is rapid and intense, the full recovery of market sentiment still takes time.

At the same time, recent data show that the economic recovery trend is still weak, and policy easing has gradually waits. The discussion on temporary measures to stabilize the market has begun to increase. The SFC once again stressed the high attitude towards various violations. The market may undergo some sort of consolidation to consolidate its foundation after a rapid rebound.

Under such circumstances, investors should pay more attention to quality and pay attention to the fundamentals of the company, including stock valuation, profit growth, business model sustainability and strategy implementation.