Looking At 2015 China'S Textile Industry From The International Market

Since 2012, the growth rate of Global trade volume has been slower than world economic growth for three consecutive years. The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that global trade volume will increase by 4% in 2015, and the rate of increase will be 0.9 percentage points higher than that in 2014. However, it is still significantly lower than the average growth rate since 1990, and the forecast is still facing the possibility of downgrading.

Under the background of the slow growth of the world economy, consumption and investment demand in various countries is generally sluggish, and the growth momentum of international trade is insufficient, and China's foreign trade situation is grim.

1, differentiation of major economies

At present, the world economy is still in the deep adjustment period after the international financial crisis, with limited growth power and obvious economic differences among countries.

The recovery of the US economy has made some progress, the endogenous driving force has gradually emerged, the labor market and the financial market have continued to improve, and the economy has entered a steady growth range.

The eurozone is still plagued by high unemployment and fiscal consolidation, and there is no obvious rebound in economic growth.

Japan's easing monetary policy has diminishing its stimulus effect, with unclear prospects for structural reform and sustained low economic growth.

The division of monetary policy in the major developed economies has prompted the US dollar to continue to appreciate, and the relative yield of US dollar assets has increased substantially, which has led to an increase in the risk premium of the global financial market, especially the expansion of abnormal international capital flows and the aggravation of the international exchange rate fluctuations, which will have an impact on China's economic stability and are not conducive to China's export trade.

It is estimated that in 2015, the export growth rate of China's textiles to the developed economies in Europe and the United States will remain low or negative growth.

Export-oriented enterprises are concerned about the fluctuation risk of the US dollar exchange rate.

2, increasing risks in emerging markets

Under the dual influence of the external environment and the adjustment of internal economic structure, the economic growth of the emerging economies is slowing down, but the overall growth rate is still faster than that of the developed countries. Especially in India, the implementation of the reform has achieved results and the economic growth rate has exceeded 7%.

However, the structural contradictions of many emerging economies are still outstanding, and industrial upgrading is difficult. Under the background of the appreciation of the US dollar, emerging economies are facing new pressure of capital outflow, the turbulence of capital market is aggravated, the financial risk is rising, and the trend of economic growth and deceleration is hard to be reversed in the short term.

In the 2014 cotton textile trade, cotton textiles in some Southeast Asian and African countries declined to varying degrees. In 2015, the pressure of foreign trade in China's emerging textile market still existed.

3, the volatility of commodity prices intensified.

Since the second half of 2014, the international market prices of oil and other energy and resources products have dropped sharply. The decline in commodity prices is the result of a combination of low demand, the release of investment capacity in the early stage of investment and the appreciation of the dollar. These factors will not change radically in the short term.

First, because demand for consumption and investment is not strong, demand for commodities is recovering slowly; secondly, the US dollar is strong, capital risk preferences and investment hot spots have shifted, and the commodity market is seriously losing blood and suppressing commodity prices.

Third, oversupply is also an important reason for the fall in commodity prices. Slow growth in demand for commodities has restrained the expansion of production capacity to a certain extent.

International commodity prices will remain weak in the near future, among which international

Price downward possibility is bigger, textile enterprises are purchasing.

Cotton must be accurately judged in the process.

4, trade protectionism is surging.

In the economic downturn, some countries have used the exchange rate as an important tool to boost exports and stimulate economic growth, forcing the currency to depreciate, resulting in a passive and substantial appreciation of the renminbi, which has seriously affected the competitiveness of China's exports in the international market.

In addition, some trade agreements discriminate and exclude more products from the countries outside the agreement, forming the barriers of these rules, resulting in greater benefits of trade pfer, which may affect the market share of the countries outside the agreement in the FTA member countries.

According to the CEPR, a UK think tank, more than 1/4 of global protectionist measures has an impact on China's exports, including Chinese textiles.

5, export competition is fierce.

Despite the slowdown in Global trade, China's export competitiveness is facing double challenges.

In the high-end industry, the developed economies take advantage of technology and talent to seize the forefront of emerging technologies, promote "re industrialization" and expand the international market.

Over the past five years, the US export volume has increased by 9% annually, and the EU's export volume has increased by 8.2% annually, all over the global export growth.

In the middle and low end industries, the neighboring emerging economies have introduced preferential investment policies with the advantage of low cost of labor, land and other production factors, taking the initiative to undertake the pfer of processing and manufacturing industries and promoting the rapid growth of exports.

Over the past five years, India's export volume has increased by 14.2% annually and ASEAN's exports have increased by 9.8% annually.

For China's textile industry, high-end export industries such as textile equipment,

The export of brand is facing more competition pressure from developed countries, while the middle and low end export industries such as conventional textile intermediate products are faced with the catching up of the peripheral emerging economies.