PMI Shows That Policy Easing Still Needs To Be Overweight.

In May, HSBC's PMI value of China's manufacturing industry was 49.1%, a slight rise from last month's final value of 48.9%.

But the data is still at a low level for 13 months, and has been in the three month following the ups and downs.

According to the sub item data, the new order index rose in May, but the new export orders index fell to 46.8%, and the output index also dropped to a one year low.

"New orders continue downward, new export orders failed to continue the trend of expansion last month, indicating that domestic demand is not strong, and the improvement of external demand has not been sustained."

Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng securities, said.

The Oriental fund researcher also analyzed that the manufacturing boom index in May has been warmer, but under the ups and downs line, the sharp decline in output index is the main influencing factor; the input price has a significant upward trend, which is related to the slight depreciation of the exchange rate in May; finished product inventory downloading and backlog up work is conducive to higher follow-up output; external demand has fallen sharply, and there is also a positive correlation with the exchange rate, and weak demand is not conducive to the subsequent PMI rebound.

Prior to the National Bureau of statistics released data, investment in April,

Is still declining, and the growth rate of industrial production is still running below 6%.

All these indicate that the downward pressure on the economy is not small.

It points out that the downward pressure on the economy still exists.

It is expected to increase the intensity of steady growth and hope for the growth of "one belt along the way, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River economic belt and Internet +" in the future.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, it is still possible to reduce interest rates.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin securities macro research director Zhang Jun told reporters that in the 2-3 quarter, it is expected to see at least two times to reduce interest rates in the next quarter.

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At present, there is no problem in the development of China's capital and market. The key is how to cultivate truly innovative talents and the mechanism of retaining such talents.

The State Council recently issued a program of action for the first ten years to implement the strategy of manufacturing power in China - "made in China 2025".

China made 2025 is jointly prepared by the Ministry of industry and Commerce in conjunction with the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of science and technology, the Ministry of finance, the General Administration of quality supervision and inspection, and the Academy of engineering.

Roman Tam, director of the Sai Di Research Institute of the Ministry of industry and commerce, said in an interview with the media that China is a big manufacturing country rather than a manufacturing power because of its lack of technological innovation and weak innovation capability.

In the "made in China 2025", the first problem is to solve the problem of weak institutional innovation; the first task of the ten task is to improve the national innovation capability; the first project of the five major project is to build the national manufacturing innovation center project; in the basic policy, we also mention innovation driven.

Therefore, innovation is the main thread of "made in China 2025".

Roman Tam said that the first dividend of China's manufacturing industry was the dividend from reform.

In 2013, the party made a strategic plan for deepening the reform in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, which has injected strong impetus to China's development.

For example, deepening financial reform will lead the capital to the real economy, especially in the key areas of manufacturing industry, effectively reduce the financing cost of enterprises, solve the problems of financing and financing, and promote the strategic reform of production factors, help to straighten out the price formation mechanism of production factors such as energy and resources, let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, promote the pformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, implement the tax policy of small and medium-sized enterprises, reduce the tax burden of enterprises, and make SMEs of innovation and entrepreneurship grow faster and better.

The second bonus comes from technological innovation, which is the implementation of innovation driven development strategy.

The revolution of science and technology is triggering profound changes in the way of industrial development. In this change, "Internet +" has become the new normal of industrial development. The Internet has become a common trend in all walks of life. The miniaturization, intellectualization and specialization of production have become the new characteristics of the industrial organization; the mode of entrepreneurship is also changing, and the carrier of innovation has changed from single enterprise to interdisciplinary and multi-agent collaborative innovation network.

This change will provide a rare historical opportunity for the catching up and development of the manufacturing industry, and will greatly stimulate the endogenous driving force of China's manufacturing industry innovation.

With the coordination of the social atmosphere of "mass entrepreneurship and innovation", a large number of dynamic and high growth small and medium manufacturing enterprises will be generated.

The third bonus is the new demographic dividend.

In China, about 7000000 students graduated every year, and the number of people accumulated in ten years is equivalent to the total population in Germany.

If the measures are effective, at the same time that the traditional demographic dividend decreases, accelerating the cultivation of demographic dividend will provide favorable support for China's manufacturing pformation and upgrading.

The fourth dividend comes from globalization.

Since reform and opening up, China has grasped the opportunities of global industrial gradient pfer and global industrial division adjustment.

After nearly 30 years of efforts, it became the world's largest producer of manufacturing in 2000.

With the further development of globalization, if we can seize this opportunity, we can promote our manufacturing enterprises to participate in the international industrial division at a higher level and leap from the middle and low end of the past international industrial value chain to the high-end.

Roman Tam said that the first change made in China is the pformation of production and manufacturing mode. The most prominent thing is that intelligent manufacturing has become a new mode of production. We should focus on 3 aspects of this change.

First, vigorously develop intelligent equipment and intelligent products, such as advanced CNC machine tools, industrial robots, intelligent production of modern core technology, drilling equipment, smart home and other intelligent products research and development and industrialization.

Second, we should vigorously promote the intellectualization of the manufacturing process, such as promoting the construction of intelligent factories or digital workshops from the aspects of intelligent product design, intelligent key processes, and optimized management and control.

Third, actively nurturing new modes of business, such as crowdsourcing design and tracing the whole industry chain.

The second revolution made in China is the pformation of organizational form.

The miniaturization, intelligentization and specialization of production become a new feature of enterprise organization.

Efforts should be made to cultivate new industrial organizations. First, we should guide the pformation of manufacturing enterprises to the Internet production mode, and establish a new user oriented, platform based and socialized new industrial organization. Two, manufacturing enterprises should actively apply new business models such as mobile e-commerce and O2O.

The third revolution made in China is the pformation of industrial structure.

The service-oriented manufacturing industry has become a new direction of industrial pformation.

To promote this kind of service, we must first vigorously develop service manufacturing, and guide enterprises to extend the industrial chain to service links by expanding product functions, enhancing paction efficiency and increasing integration capabilities.

For example, manufacturing enterprises do supply chain finance, that is, vigorously develop service-oriented manufacturing; develop and expand the third party logistics service industry, develop e-commerce, develop enterprise inspection and certification, is to vigorously develop the production service industry.

The fourth change is the pformation of industrial innovation.

Collaborative innovation has become a new mode of industrial technology innovation.

According to "made in China 2025", we should speed up and improve the innovation system of our national manufacturing industry.

First, we should accelerate the construction of a synergy innovation network with enterprise as the main body, and that is to build a number of national manufacturing innovation systems for the region and the whole country.

The two is to support key industries, build public service platforms and engineering data centers.

Three, we should focus on capital and power to break through a number of key core technologies, such as high-end general purpose chips, basic software, integrated circuits, etc.