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    Dollar Index Slightly Lower Trend Shocks

    2015/4/19 20:08:00 24

    US Dollar IndexStock MarketInvestment Skills

    On the market side, the US dollar index fell slightly, and the US economic data were mixed. The euro traded against the US dollar at 1.08, still dragged down by the Greek crisis; the spot gold price stood above the US $1200; the stock market crash lifted the gold demand for refuge; oil prices fell from this year's high level this week, Brent crude oil rose 9.6% this week, the Middle East turmoil and the signs of us production reduction boosted oil prices.

    European and American stock market crash has triggered a risk aversion, and global stock market has entered adjustment.

    By the end of Friday, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of Pan European blue chips fell 1.8%.

    The German DAX index fell 2.58%, the FTSE 100 index fell 0.93% in Britain and the French CAC 40 index fell 1.55%.

    The US stock index dropped 1.51%, the S & P 500 fell 1.13%, and the NBA index fell 1.51%.

    This week, Dow index fell 1.3%, the S & P 500 index fell 1%, and Nasdaq dropped 1.3%.

    According to media reports, Chinese regulators will now allow fund managers to borrow short shares, and the new rules will expand the range of stocks investors can short.

    Traders said China's futures market was weak and ignited the decline in European and US stock markets.

    There are also rumors in the market that China's stock market regulation will make further adjustments, including the fight against margin trading, which is a heavy blow to China's futures market.

    Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst for securities firm OANDA, said: "this obviously exerts great pressure on China's stock index futures and makes the stock market fall across the board.

    European stock markets were also crushed.

    After the new regulations, H-shares - the mid - stock market listed in Hongkong - index futures fell 4%.

    What we are seeing now is the market panic and the combination of technological breakthroughs in the stock market, which exacerbates the downward trend of the stock market. "

    Ioan Smith, managing director of KCG Europe, said: "the securities regulatory authorities encourage institutional investors to sell short and forbid margin trading in the OTC market. After the end of the Bloomberg terminal operation, traders have to react to China's news, leading to lower European shares."

    A technical analyst told CNBC on Friday that he expects the world's major stock markets to start callbacks next month.

    Yacine Kanoun, executive director of PivotHunters, UK, said: "I think the German DAX index and the S & P 500 index will probably peak today.

    Some options are expected to expire on Friday and will trigger a pullback market. He expects the S & P 500 index to return 10% from its current level and expect the German DAX index to bottom at 11650. "

    Donald Ellenberger, Federated Investors's own portfolio manager, believes that one of the reasons for the sell-off of risky assets is that the market is worried about Greece's ability to pay its debts.

    When investors rush to buy German bonds, spreads on credit spreads widen.

    But what triggered the sell-off was the news that Chinese regulators allowed to expand the scope of short selling, and many investors who had made huge gains during the stock market were selling off.

    China's stock market has gone crazy, and investors should be on guard.

    The Shanghai Composite Index has risen 30% this year, more than doubled in the past ten months.

    The boom has also spread to the Hongkong market, and the Hang Seng Index has risen nearly 18% so far this year.

    The Hang Seng Index of Chinese enterprises increased by 22%.

    Even teenage young people have invested in the stock market, and China's market has naturally climbed up to a new high.

    More and more ordinary people joined the so-called "stock investors" of Xinhua news agency, and lined up outside the securities companies to open accounts.

    China's stock market is rising because of the market's conviction that the central bank will introduce more stimulus measures.

    Kevin Ferriter, a marketing economist at Kay investment, points out that the most important factor behind China's Daniel market is that policymakers have given investors a deep impression: "they intend to keep the share price going up."

    According to data released by the Chinese government late last month, 90% of the volume in the Chinese market now comes from retail investors, which means that

    policy

    The framers must begin to worry about the collapse of the bubble.

    Recently, regulators and state media have repeatedly talked about the risks of the stock market, calling on all parties to be vigilant.

    Xiao Gang, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, issued a warning on Thursday that new stock investors should "act according to their abilities" and should remain "rational and calm".

    He also warned market participants to be careful not to be afraid of the fear of losing the rally.

    Foreign analysts pointed out that "in many Chinese people's view, the present

    bull market

    It's like a place where gold is everywhere, so they enter the market in a big way, to a large extent, in the creation and promotion of market frenzy.

    However, Chinese people are so keen on following the trend that they must be guided and constantly educated about market risks.

    Otherwise, when all the citizens are involved in stock speculation, they will only cause the bubble problem to deteriorate further, resulting in the ultimate systemic risk.

      

    US dollar index

    The US economy is mixed with a slight decrease in the trend.

    The US dollar index continued this week's downtrend, but it slowed down and ended slightly lower, mainly because of the mixed economic data released in the United States, which eased investors' concerns about the continued weakness of US data.

    The inflation figures released by the US are basically in line with expectations. The leading indicators of the consultative chamber are not as good as expected, while the consumer confidence index of University of Michigan is better than expected.

    Specific data show that the United States in March CPI rate of 0.2%, 0.3% is expected, the former value of 0.2%; the United States in March core CPI annual rate of 1.8%, is expected to 1.7%, the former value 1.7%.

    For US inflation data, the analysis shows that gasoline prices rose by 3.9% in February, the largest increase since February 2013, the increase in rental demand, the rise in housing prices, and the rise in food prices. The CPI performance in the US has gone up for second consecutive months, indicating that part of the potential of inflation should be enough to enable the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates this year.

    Millan Mulraine, a strategist at Dow Ming securities, wrote in its report that core inflation data in March showed that the "anti inflation push" began to slow down.

    The US core CPI should be able to slow down the Fed's concerns.

    It should be able to "slow down the Fed's concerns about the weak inflation environment", but it still takes time for inflation to pick up the target.

    Data may be seen as evidence that "the worst stage of inflation is over".

    The March US Chamber of Commerce led a monthly target rate of 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.1%.

    For the data, economists from the Advisory Council said that although the leading indicators still showed moderate expansion in US economic activity, the slowdown in growth in the past few months hinted that future growth would be weak.

    Construction permits were the weakest sub item in the month, but average hours and new orders in manufacturing industry also dragged down the growth of leading indicators.


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