Meng Jie Home Textile Control Fee Potential To Dig Up Performance Space Remarkable Results

Meng Jie home textile: the fee control effect is remarkable, and the future performance is upward.

　　 Dream home textiles The Limited by Share Ltd recently announced that its total revenue in 2014 was 1 billion 572 million yuan, an increase of 10.49% over the same period last year, with a total profit of 179 million yuan, an increase of 52.12% over the same period last year. Net profit attributable to listed companies was 145 million yuan, an increase of 47.03% yuan over the same period last year, with a yield of EPS0.48 yuan per share. Performance significantly exceeded expectations, especially in the four quarter, outstanding performance in the single quarter (revenue growth of 19%, net profit growth of 81%).

From the company's performance bulletin, we can see that the growth of revenue is basically in line with our expectations. Electricity supplier + small brand It is the main force of contribution. The size of the company's e-commerce business base is the smallest among three home textiles (13 years about 100 million yuan), and the 14 year reconstruction team has increased investment. The annual revenue is estimated to be around 150 million, an increase of 50%. Offline channel Due to the weak consumption environment, it is expected to grow by 5-10%. According to the brand, we expect the main brand of the company to grow 5-10%, while the high-end "sleep" is actively adjusted by product and sales mode, and the growth rate is about 10%. The other small brands such as "dream baby" are small, and are expanding rapidly, and the growth is expected to be 40%. Because of the increase in electricity providers mainly in the "double eleven" embodiment, joining the channel in the four quarter replenishment stock and some impulse impact, the company's fourth quarter income end performance is better than the first three quarters.

The annual earnings performance exceeded expectations, mainly due to the continued strengthening of the company's control fees. In the past two years, the company has been carrying out comprehensive business accounting, paying attention to the quality of open shop, adopting profit oriented assessment, and stimulating the enthusiasm of employees to increase store efficiency and control costs. In addition, the cost of the company's Centralized Settlement in Q4 has gradually smoothed to the first three quarters, while the 14Q4 revenue has increased by 19%, and the Q4 cost rate is expected to decrease. At the same time, we judge that because of the higher gross profit margin of the electricity supplier, the proportion of direct sales increased and the cost of raw materials decreased, it is estimated that the gross profit margin will increase steadily in the whole year, and it will also contribute to profitability.

We believe that the company's investment logic is focused on improving the quality of single stores and the potential of controlling fees. Three leading companies Home textiles At present, the company has the smallest volume, while the single store store efficiency and profitability have not been high (the net profit margin of 11-13 years is only 8.8%, 4.7% and 6.9%, and around 15% of the company, and the company has fully realized that the weak points in operation actively enhance the operation efficiency. The control fee has become very effective in the past two years, and this will gradually form management inertia, and it is expected that it will continue to reflect in the later stage.

Based on the understanding and improvement of the dream of home textiles for the weak points of the company's operation, and the remarkable achievements in the past two years, once the management inertia is formed, it will be fully reflected in the performance of the performance. Therefore, we raised the EPS for 14-16 years to 0.48, 0.60 and 0.73 yuan (originally 0.37, 0.41, 0.46 yuan). At present, the stock price corresponds to the valuation of 21X, 17X and 14X. The company's market value is small and flexible, without considering the valuation increase, and its performance can support at least 20% of the stock price. "Overweight".