The Impact Of India Dumping On China'S Cotton Market

For India ginning plants, international cotton traders and Chinese traders, the news of India state owned Cotton Corp (CCI) toss and sell can be described as "moving the whole body". However, based on the judgement that all India cotton reserves will be sold before the new cotton market in 2015, in the 2014/15 cotton production in India is still larger than the consumption of about 1600000 tons, CCI will be a big probability event.

On the 27-28 day and two days of January, the number of CCI pactions was 1100 packages (187 tons), 1000 packages (170 tons), and the average price of two days was 70.35 cents / pound (33900 rupee /candy), all purchased by textile mills, significantly higher than the 6.5-7 price / pound of India cotton S-6 ex factory price in 2014/15, supporting the weak domestic cotton prices in India, and the mentality of ginning factories and exporters were diluted. In January, India S-6 rose slightly on the 26-29 day, and was about 70.35 cents / pound in 30200-30300 rupee / candi.

CCI national cotton store auction high price paction is more than most of the cotton mill and

The expectations of processing enterprises, especially in the domestic cotton demand did not pick up, Chinese buyers cotton yarn procurement space larger selection, Bunny Brahma, Guntur branches, Adilabad branches high cotton sales price to stimulate domestic stock market is rising.

First, the impact of CCI dumping on global cotton supply is relatively large, but the impact on spot prices of ICE and high-grade cotton is relatively limited.

首先,從近幾日CCI拋儲(chǔ)的貨源來(lái)看,因纖維長(zhǎng)度達(dá)到31mm、棉花品級(jí)比較高,而前期印度國(guó)內(nèi)高等級(jí)新花的上市量并不大,且馬值、強(qiáng)力和回潮比較大,紡C40S及以上高支紗有難度,因此紗廠短暫高價(jià)競(jìng)拍高等級(jí)國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉過(guò)渡并不為奇;其次,截止1月15日2014/15年度美棉的簽約出口量已接近90%,可供出口和選擇的SM級(jí)及以上美棉已寥寥無(wú)幾,而可以用來(lái)代替交割的澳棉更是“一票難求”,機(jī)采的巴西棉又以中低品級(jí)為主,后市ICE不排除倉(cāng)單過(guò)低而被多頭或資金逼倉(cāng)的可能,ICE哪來(lái)的下跌動(dòng)力?再次,澳大利亞及南美棉花種植面積大幅下滑已成定局(據(jù)測(cè)算,2015/16年澳棉產(chǎn)量將下滑至40多萬(wàn)噸,同比下滑50%以上),而美國(guó)、中國(guó)以及印度棉花種植面積也將快速減少,北半球減種或達(dá)到15%-20%,因此即使印度CCI國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉全部拋儲(chǔ),成交也無(wú)法彌補(bǔ)植面積下滑帶來(lái)的產(chǎn)量損失。

Two, China, India and other countries, the focus of cotton procurement is high grade lint, low grade cotton market capacity gradually atrophy, CCI country store low grade cotton or will "filming".

Taking into account the about 11000000 tons of national storage and 2014/15 annual domestic output of around 6 million 500 thousand tons, coupled with the overall slowdown in economic growth, the trend of cotton consumption decline is more obvious. The Chinese government has great determination to strictly control the quota issuance and promote the digestion of national cotton. The import quota of cotton imports within 894 thousand tons of 1% tariff will be used by cotton enterprises on the "knife edge" to purchase no "three silk" high-grade cotton, SM grade and above West African cotton and Central Asian cotton. The space left for India cotton is very limited, because China has huge national cotton reserves and real estate cotton backing, while India's domestic industrial upgrading and structural pformation also leap to a new stage, low yarn, low grade yarn and low profit.

Has gradually abandoned to other Southeast Asian countries or Bangladesh, Africa and other countries, the supply ratio of C32S and above high count combs and combed yarns has been greatly increased, and the consumption demand of cotton has been raised to high grade India cotton, American cotton, Central Asian cotton or West African cotton. Especially, no three wire machine picking cotton is very popular. In addition, the lowest purchase price of seed cotton is still being applied in India for 2014/15, and the price of seed cotton and lint is the bottom of the price. Therefore, the relevant departments believe that if the price of CCI throws the store is low, it will directly suppress the new cotton in 2015, and the confidence in the cotton mill and cotton farmers is a shock.

Three, a large number of India quilts to push

To seize the cotton market share in Africa, Central Asia and Pakistan, the price will also be matched to the middle and low grade cotton, and the difference between the high and low grade cotton will be widened. Just like January, the price difference between SM grade cotton and India cotton S-6 SM will reach 20 cents / pound respectively.

According to some foreign businessmen and institutions, the India government's "one year and one clean" state treasury operation is expected to be out of CCI cotton inventory by October, while the Chinese market can only be used to digest India cotton or save CCI. The price advantage has become the only pass that can enter the Chinese market. Therefore, 40% full tariff import has been put on the table.

Since late January, the price of domestic cotton manufacturers has been priced at 12500-12800 yuan / ton, or 40% tariff. The price of India cotton CIF is 56-58 cents / pound. At present, the price of S-6 cotton mill in India is 63 cents / pound, and the price of CIF is 68-69 cents / pound. If India cotton is not subject to the quota of China's import quota, the price of CIF should be reduced by 10 cents or pounds at least, but it will be reduced to 10 cents per pound for new cotton in 2014/15. It is "natural disaster" and unbearable. The India government and cotton enterprises will find a balance between export and national stock.