Ji Lu Yu: The Spring Festival Holiday For Textile Enterprises Is Relatively Long.

At present,

The textile market is calm. Sales of both cotton and yarn to the grey cloth are all shrinking. Before the festival, the stocking is not positive and orders are decreasing. It is expected that the market will be the same before the Spring Festival. Most manufacturers are closing the work at the end of the year, and small businesses have recently stopped working. It is understood that a medium-sized Hebei is running.

Scheduled for 26, the holiday began on the 12 day of the holiday, 3-4 days ahead of the previous holiday.

This year's pport industry is also ahead of the previous year's holiday. Long distance lines have been suspended on the 5-6 th of February, and the last line of the short haul line on February 8-9 is not guaranteed to have a car.

Since the market is not good, it has been hard for a year.

Let's take a good rest.

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According to relevant information, in 2015, if domestic cotton prices did not show larger supply and demand contradictions and prices rose sharply, the government departments would not issue additional quotas other than 894 thousand tons and 1% tariff quotas in principle. This news dispelled the idea that the foreign trade companies, trade companies and cotton textile enterprises should supplement the import mode of sliding tariffs and processing trade quotas.

According to customs statistics, imports of cotton in 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 513 tons, 4 million 150 thousand tons, 2 million 440 thousand tons, 2013 and 2014, respectively, down to 19.1% and 41.2% respectively. Among them, the proportion of US cotton, India cotton and West African cotton decreased to varying degrees. The influence of quotas, prices and textile enterprises' ability to bear the market share was a major factor. Several large foreign and domestic traders were generally pessimistic about the import situation of foreign cotton in 2015. They even thought that the total import volume in 2015 would not exceed 150 tons, while the forecast data in the monthly reports of USDA and ICAC were 1 million 524 thousand tons and 1 million 733 thousand tons respectively, which were larger than those in the previous months.

First, the export quota of cotton within 894 thousand tons or 1% tariff will be adjusted or adjusted, but the hard index of cotton mill with more than 50 thousand spindles and import and export performance will not change, so the 894 thousand tons will not digest fully in full year.

The 1% tariff quota that has been carried down is about 300 thousand tons (which must be used before the end of February), so the total quota of 2015 is about 1 million 200 thousand tons. So, what is the expected amount of the 1 million 500 thousand ton? 1, the industry rumors that the government will give incentives and incentives to the textile enterprises of Xinjiang cotton for 2014/15 in the year of 6:1, and the proportion of the original allocation will be broken down according to the proportion of 6:1 or 7:1 or 8:1. This is also the reason why the quota policy can not be released at the end of January. Industry estimates 2014

Two, the probability of paying full duty of imported cotton is objective.

India cotton CIF quotation fell to 60 cents / pound and the following customs tariff clearance rate is large, but from the angle of "minimum purchase protection price of seed cotton" in 2015, and the protection of farmers by the "India cotton" and the stability of the cotton planting area in 2015, the price of India state owned Cotton Corp will not be very low.

截止1月15日,美棉簽約出口量已占其年度出口總量的87%以 上,美棉可供出口和選擇的棉花資源已所剩不多,中國買家要想訂購到高等級美棉只能從外商或其它國家企業(yè)“口中奪食”,困難可想而知,因此ICE面臨的下壓 或探底空間都已不大,從美棉簽約的ICE盤面價格、現(xiàn)貨價格來看,不存在繳納全額關稅進口的機會,而從近日中國上游、下游和貿易商的反饋來看,國內地產 棉、新疆棉的市場售價已分別在13000元/噸、14000元/噸附近企穩(wěn),目前港口印度棉凈重提貨價也在14000元/噸附近,與新疆2128級“同臺 競技”,但用棉企業(yè)、中間商則認為印度棉的定位應該是同地產棉較量,即短線S-6的CIF價格向60美分/磅靠攏(1月24-26日印度國內S-6軋花廠出廠價集中在63-64美分/磅),因此一旦CCI拋儲引發(fā)2014/15年度印度棉新花報價大幅下調6-8美分/磅,在中國國儲棉不再輪出的情況下,不排除中國買家繳納40%

The possibility of purchasing cotton in India by tariffs.

Three, high-grade cotton picking is still the focus of purchasing and operation of China's cotton textile enterprises and traders in 2014/15.

With the continuous weakening of consumption power, Xinjiang cotton sales moved to the mainland. Uzbekistan and other Central Asian cotton and high grade cotton in the Chinese market are much more difficult to enter the Chinese market than American cotton, Australian cotton and India cotton.

It is understood that in the international market, only the United States, Australia and Brazil are the main cotton pickers in the international market. Among them, the quality of Brazil cotton belongs to the middle and inferior parts of the machine. The control of the "three silk" and impurity content is basically the same as that of the Xinjiang regiment, and there is a big gap in spinnability and grade between the Australian cotton and the American cotton. Therefore, the recognition and cognition of the Chinese buyers are significantly lower than those of the previous years.

Increase the tax rebate, tax and credit loans, financial support, and so on, to reduce the risk of a large number of skilled workers laid-off and social stability; second, the appreciation of the dollar, the RMB into the rapid depreciation of the channel, the impact on the import of cotton outside the cotton industry gradually increased, the Chinese textile enterprises to buy cotton, India cotton, West Africa cotton costs increased; third, in the US cotton and cotton cotton contract signing export "red hot", India cotton production, export volume continued to increase, domestic consumption accelerated weak "internal distress" situation, the United States cotton or will seize the India cotton prices and export policy errors, in India cotton and India cotton merchants in China to be squeezed out of the market periphery. Some cotton traders reflected 2-5 points of attention to cotton imports in three months: first, the Chinese government's support for the entire textile industry after the Spring Festival.