Semir: It Is Expected That The Growth Of Children'S Wear In Casual Wear Is Still A Bright Spot For Development.

After the recent adjustment of stock prices, the valuation is 17.6 times in the 15 years. On the basis of basic support next year, in view of the great potential of children's industry development, the company's subsequent mergers and acquisitions in children's animation, film and television, games, education and other fields are expected to play a catalytic role in the latter share price and give a certain valuation flexibility.

The company's 15 years are still our key recommendation, mainly based on the valuation switch and the extension of the children's industrial chain to promote the expected price elasticity.

Events: Recent

At the strategic meeting, we conducted in-depth discussions with the company on the recent operation, next year's development plan and the focus of our work.

1, under the weak market environment, next year leisure wear business is expected to resume growth trend, children's clothing business development momentum is still strong. The company's casual wear business has taken the lead in the industry in 13 years. At the present stage of the continuous recovery process, the negative inventory problems and the adjustment of the order mode will make the brand light up. This year's revenue growth has been negative from Q2.

Taking into account the 14 years of casual wear in the autumn and winter, the order will increase by 10% and 20% respectively. It is expected that the income and profit will increase in the second half of this year.

Next year, under the guidance of the growth of 14% and 20% of the 15 spring and summer orders respectively, it is expected that the leisure wear business in the first half of next year is expected to continue to recover a certain growth trend.

Children's clothing industry has a relatively high boom.

With the rapid development, the company will continue to focus on the strategy of "brand extension + category extension". In the hope of consolidating the leadership of Barra in the field of children's clothing, it will make two-way extension between the new brand dream and mini Barra in the target market positioning and products, and form the high-end brand gradient layout with the agent's high-end Italy brand Sarabanda, so as to further improve the market share and create the leading brand of the influential professional children's clothing and supplies. In addition, using the Internet thinking, according to the characteristics of Barbara brand and the two new brands, the development strategy of "differentiation" and "the same price with the same price" will be implemented on line and offline.

First of all, brand extension is based on high-end positioning.

And the middle end Mini Bala, Barra and dream four brand channel expansion to seize market share, the plan market share can achieve 10% goals.

Moreover, the age coverage of target customers is extended to only 3-12 years old children at the beginning of the market, covering the age of 0-14 years old and the CUHK brand.

Category extension: Bala brand pition from single clothing sales to one-stop sales of ensemble shoes, accessories, stationery, toys and bags; the dream mode is more innovative in China; as a one-stop brand of children's products such as shoes and accessories, it has less competition, and sells products in all categories through innovative products such as shoes, exclusive scene products, skin care products and cooperative development with industry experts; mini Bala is developing children's market through clothing, shoes, matching, spinning, playing, home (furniture) and seven categories.

Channel strategy: under the bral Bara brand line, there are nearly 3500 stores. In the future, the main direction is to open up a second tier city's MALL channel and three or four line city street shops.

At the same time, the original small and medium-sized shops expand their stores by increasing the area and mainly pform to "mushroom type" shops.

Electricity providers, because the bala Bara line has a large scale, therefore, the main line of differentiated products to expand.

Meng Du and mini Bala take the whole channel strategy for layout and take the same price for sale.

On the whole, the company plans to increase children's clothing business by about 20% every year in the next 2 to 3 years.

Judging from the current development of children's wear business, in view of the 15 spring and summer Barbara orders will increase by 30% and 20% respectively, plus the dream of many new stores, and Mini Bara's two new brands to continue, it is expected that children's clothing business will continue to be the highlight of the company next year, and it can maintain a relatively fast growth trend.

2, the Internet business base is relatively low, showing a high growth trend, but the long-term strategy still needs to coordinate with the channel interests. Under the trend of rapid development of the Internet industry, the company's electricity business increased by 70% in the first half of the year. It is estimated that the annual sales target of 1 billion yuan will reach 100% growth.

At present, the company's electricity business is still in the exploratory stage. In the future, we hope to develop in a low cost mode. Following the launch of this year's brand of shirts with high quality and low yield in June this year, we will continue to introduce new products.

For the online and offline interests of the carding problem, the company also consider franchisees equity participation in the integration of direct integration, but because of the huge system of joining the company, the direct pformation of the camp also takes a long time.

3.

The extension plan is still one of the drivers of share prices next year.

Through its more than 10 years of operation and its leadership in the field of children's wear, Barbara has successfully accumulated 4 million middle-class VIP users, whose needs are related to children's education, footwear, accessories, toys, stationery, home textiles, and other garments.

Considering the decentralization of competition in the children's industry and the lack of a national brand, the company plans to extend the original advantages of children's clothing to the relevant needs of customers.

Relying on the leading position of balbala's nationwide layout, we should extend the products and industries to meet the coming of the great opportunities for children's industries.

This year, the bright spot of the company's development has been concentrated on the influence of the children's market. While pushing forward the development of children's industry, the goal of pforming the "children's product provider" into "the comprehensive service provider for children's industry" is put forward.

The product extension includes children's clothing, shoes, accessories, toys, stationery, home textiles and other children's products development and sales. The industry extension points to the penetration of animation, film and television, children's education and other fields.

The company believes that China's children's industry is very weak, children's clothing, early education, animation, film and television and other fields are scarce, these are all opportunities.

The company continues to expand its expectations next year in the field of children's animation, film and television, following this year's involvement in the field of early education, which will continue to be a driving force for the stock price next year.

Of course, the company lacks experience in the field of extension, and how to continue to observe in the new field.