German Businessman: As Long As Inflation Is Low, Eurodollar Will Suppress Euro.

Ulrich Leuchtmann, a strategist at Commerzbank, said the foreign exchange market's concern about the ECB's QE may not be as important as the central bank's weakness in the euro.

Ulrich Leuchtmann wrote in the central bank and the Foreign Exchange Market Research Report:

The European Central Bank President Delaki (Mario Draghi) has expressed his mind. There are still obstacles in the central bank's efforts to inflate inflation in the implementation of expansionary monetary policy. In addition, his remarks contain a more clear hint that the current liquidity measures that are being implemented and implemented are in essence successful because they suppressed the exchange rate of the euro. Delaki's stance on Thursday's monetary policy conference may not be able to go beyond such clarity.

After all, the world may accuse it of "manipulation of foreign exchange market", which is also a forbidden area promised by the seven industrial nations (G7). But within limits, the European authorities will still try to suppress the euro as much as possible in an oral way.

When the euro falls to what level is the central bank satisfied? The issue has been mentioned many times by investors, but we think it is not timely. As long as inflation remains low, the ECB will continue to depreciate the euro, so the real question of concern is the decline in the euro / dollar, rather than falling.

But increasingly clear. Quantitative easing The framework, which has been introduced by Constancio, vice president of the European bank, seems to be less effective in suppressing the euro because the central bank has already announced the expansion of its balance sheet. Whether the QE initiative is fulfilled is no longer a matter of whether the central bank provides more liquidity, but rather, with the help of tools to achieve this goal.

stay Europe and America In terms of its specific operation, 2ndSkies Chris Capre, chief analyst, pointed out that the euro / dollar had any weakness in the 1.2515-1.2600 range. rebound Will be regarded as the opportunity to sell.

Capre said last week we pointed out that once the euro / dollar rebounded to the preset 1.2515/1.2600 selling area, it would choose to sell euros at high prices. Only when the euro / dollar chart closes on the 1.26 pass will it reverse the short-term bearish preference, and the downlink target will be 1.2375 and 1.21.