Chen Jianhao: Is The Currency War Coming Again?

The Risk on risk off has been constantly frying on the outside market, and on the surface, the market is going up and down, but on the other hand, it is only trading on the market and there is no obvious trend. This week, the focus of the global financial market is sure to focus on the 28 to 29 October fed interest conference. A few weeks ago, the Federal Reserve announced a strong reminder of the strong dollar against the US dollar, which made the dollar strong and immediately brake. Then several Fed officials, such as Brad and Evans, issued a pigeon speech one after another for a few weeks, so that the US interest rate hike is expected to slightly lower. Will this week formally conclude the debt purchase plan and the remarks on interest rate increase, which will have a more decisive impact.

The US news is of course important, but other central banks also have big moves to make it difficult for the market to single out the market. The European Commission has informed Italy, France and other countries that the draft budget violates the EU's requirements, which has greatly increased the chances of rejection of the budget. The euro still has a chance to rebound slightly, but the space is also very limited.

A few years ago, the currency war led by Japan seemed to have another chance to appear again. The records of the Bank of Australia continued to maintain pigeon rhetoric. The central bank governor and vice president repeatedly said that the Australian dollar was too high, and it was obvious that the central bank was happy to see the depreciation of the Australian dollar. As the saying goes, Don 't fight the Fed seems to have the same high risk of confrontation with other central banks.

Another commodity currency, New Zealand dollar, has always been the favorite of housewives in the first half of the year. However, it has been under pressure for the second half of the year. For example, the international milk price has naturally affected the income of New Zealand, while the depreciation of the Australian dollar has increased exports and transformed the economy.

And last week announced the third quarter. inflation With a 1% annual gain, it fell to the lower limit of target inflation in New Zealand's central bank, which further delayed the increase in interest rates from the first quarter of next year to the end of next year, making it difficult for the New Zealand dollar to rise, and the market worried that the growth of the global economy slowed down. Niu Yuan The opportunity to continue to consolidate at low levels is still high, and resistance is limited to 0.7950.

As for Pound In recent weeks, the central bank governor has been raising interest rates, but the pound has not benefited from it, until the announcement of the meeting minutes also shocked the market. Most members of the policy committee did not agree to raise interest rates because they were afraid of economic recovery. Since the referendum in Scotland, the pound has risen to 1.65, and the short-term resistance is 1.6250. It is believed that the 1.65 increase will be greatly reduced in the year. As for the support level, it was evident in the 15950 and June 2013 high 1.5750.

There are no more opportunities for the central bank to raise interest rates, making the US dollar strong. However, since the Federal Reserve has issued a warm reminder at the US dollar index 86.7, it is worried that the stronger US dollar will affect exports and suppress inflation. The US dollar has no further conditions for further upgrading. It is also the Don 't fight the Fed, which can be used for interval trading temporarily, while the middle line can still wait for foreign currency to rebound and sell.