The Demand For Renminbi Is Weakening.

Foreign Exchange Inflow grew steadily in the first half of this year, and the trade surplus was at a relatively high level in recent years. The so-called trade surplus refers to the difference between the total export volume of a country and the total import volume of the same period. The larger the difference is, the more foreign exchange it flows into the country under the current account. China's accumulated trade surplus reached US $103 billion 50 million in the first half of this year, the highest level since 2008, which is significantly higher than the US $68 billion 900 million in the same period in 2012. As the current trade surplus is still the main source of foreign exchange in China, the trade surplus is at a relatively high level in recent years.

However, from the monthly data in the first half of the year, the pace of foreign exchange inflow is not stable or even fluctuating. In the first quarter, the trade surplus shrank to 16 billion 780 million US dollars, 60% less than the same period last year. But after April, the trade surplus began to rebound. Especially in mid May, the State Council issued the "opinions on supporting the steady growth of foreign trade". The scale of the surplus began to increase significantly, and the trade surplus in the two quarter increased by 86 billion 200 million US dollars, up 30% over the same period last year.

And in July foreign trade The steady growth measures are further effective. The latest trade figures show that the surplus has accelerated growth. In July, the trade surplus reached US $47 billion 300 million in the single month, an increase of 49%, an increase of 166% over the same period last year, and the trade surplus reached a record high. If the policy of maintaining stable growth of foreign trade in the three and fourth quarter does not change significantly, it is estimated that the scale of Foreign Exchange Inflow represented by the trade surplus will increase in the second half of the year.

stay Balance of trade surplus At the same time, there is a market phenomenon that deserves attention. That is, the market will have a strong desire to exchange foreign currency. We know that the balance of foreign exchange settlement refers to the difference between foreign exchange settlement and foreign exchange purchase. The larger the difference, the stronger the willingness of domestic market participants to convert foreign exchange (US dollars) into local currency (RMB) after the inflow of foreign exchange. This actually means relative to foreign exchange and domestic market to RMB. demand More, of course, there are both real demand for RMB and arbitrage demand for RMB.

In the first half of this year, China's foreign exchange surplus has reached US $188 billion 260 million, an increase of 36% over the same period last year. Compared with 2012, the surplus of foreign exchange sales in the first half of this year did not pressure the RMB to become devalued, but it should support the rebound of the RMB exchange rate. However, in terms of the structure of foreign exchange settlement and sale, the real demand for RMB has maintained a steady growth in the first half of this year. However, the speculative demand for RMB has obviously weakened.

Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the current account surplus increased by 183 billion 100 million US dollars, the growth was basically the same as last year, which is at a relatively high level in recent years. On the other hand, the capital and financial account surplus increased by only 10 billion US dollars in the first half of this year, a sharp decrease of 65% compared to the same period last year, which is at a relatively low level in recent years. The sharp drop in the growth of capital and financial account surplus implied that from the perspective of speculative demand, the expectation of RMB appreciation in the first half of this year dropped significantly.