Xu Chenghong: Euro Is Dismal.

< p > < strong > the German central bank supports the European bank loose > /strong > /p >

The German economy is more vulnerable to the appreciation of the euro than the other p a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" and the euro zone /a countries. For many years, the Bundesbank has maintained a conservative stance against the European Central Bank's emergency measures to deal with the debt crisis in the euro area.

It can be seen that the Bundesbank's current default on the opening of the European Central Bank's resolution in June will further boost the euro's shorts, and the euro fell sharply by 0.40% against the dollar on Tuesday, breaking a low of 1.3688 in the past month.

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Last Thursday, Delaki, the European central bank governor, said that if the latest inflation expectations are necessary, the central bank is ready to take action next month to boost the region's economy. P

The weakening of the euro after the ECB meeting last week suggests that the euro is still vulnerable to weak data.

At present, the euro area inflation rate is 0.7%, far lower than the European Central Bank set a target of slightly less than 2% of the medium-term inflation target.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Germany < /a > the central bank is ready to support the actions taken by the European bank. The German central bank has expressed its willingness to support the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "the European Central Bank" /a "to take policy actions when necessary. This is not news. The decision-making level is examining all relevant data, which is very important for inflation expectations in 2016, but it is not the only decisive data.

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(P) when the ECB meets next month to weigh interest rates and other stimulus measures, the Bundesbank's stance may provide important support for the ECB President Delaki, especially from Germany's support.

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< p > this is the most clear signal so far that the Bundesbank has fully invested in the use of monetary policy tools to fight ultra low inflation in the euro area.

Over the years, the Bundesbank has held a conservative stance against the European Central Bank's emergency measures to deal with the euro zone debt crisis.

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Germany's investor confidence index continued to decline in May, falling for the five consecutive month and its lowest level since January 2013. This shows that the low inflation and strong euro are increasing concerns, threatening the recovery of the largest economy in the euro area.

According to the data released by the European Economic Research Center on Tuesday, Germany's ZEW economic index fell to 33.1 in May, with a forecast of 41.

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Less than P, it is worth noting that the ZEW economic index of Germany has been declining since hitting the high 62 this year in December last year.

The decline in investor confidence indicates that the market is worried about the recovery of the largest economy in the euro area.

This is mainly reflected in the slow economic recovery in the euro area or making Germany more vulnerable.

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< p > in view of the concerns of policymakers about euro zone inflation expectations and the rise of the euro exchange rate, Delaki, the European central bank governor, said that further stimulus measures might take place in early June.

In the past few months, the negative factors of the German economic recovery include the weakness of emerging markets and the strong euro. GDP growth is expected to decline in the next few quarters.

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< p > < strong > market focus shifted to British data < /strong > /p >

After the overnight fall of the euro, the focus of trading in the intra day market is likely to turn to sterling. The British side will announce the latest employment data and the Bank of England quarterly inflation report in Europe today, P.

The pound fell slightly against the US dollar on Tuesday, because investors were reluctant to bet on further rise in the two British risk events.

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The latest employment figures and the quarterly report on inflation of the Bank of England will be released in Europe today. The pound sterling has proved that the influence of the UK employment data itself is no less than that of the United States, while the importance of the inflation report of the British and British banks is far more than that of the P.

How the two UK risk events will affect the trend of the pound today is worthy of close attention from investors.

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< p > however, the pound has been eye-catching against the US dollar in the past month, and most traders bet that the strong recovery of the British economy will enable the central bank to raise interest rates ahead of time.

Derivatives based on Sterling overnight interbank interest rates show that the central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March next year, the result of last week is April next year.

The Bank of England has kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5% since March 2009.

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< p > at present, the market expects that the median unemployment rate in the UK will fall to 6.8% in the first quarter.

For inflation reports, the foreign media survey shows that the Bank of England is unlikely to substantially adjust the forecast of idle capacity in the UK economy, but may soon take action to address the problem of rising housing prices.

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< p > from the point of time, the ILO unemployment rate will be released at 16:30 Beijing time in the three months from the United Kingdom to March. The quarterly inflation report of the Bank of England will be announced at 17:30. Considering that it has been mixed for 1 hours, the pound is likely to face several rounds of fluctuations in today's European era.

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< p > the quality of employment data in Britain is likely to trigger the rise or fall of the pound in the first place, but the trend of the pound will still largely depend on the Bank of England inflation report.

In the report, the Bank of England is expected to raise or lower GDP expectations. What will be the description of the future monetary policy, especially the rate increase, will affect the direction of the pound effectively.

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