After The RMB Exchange Rate Has Risen Rapidly, It Is Weakening.

In May 5th and 6th, the RMB exchange rate rose to two days against the US dollar, rising 0.5%, which is the biggest rebound since the last one and a half months.

In view of the future trend of RMB exchange rate, the industry began to diverge.

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< p > < strong > why does the post exchange rate rise rapidly? < /strong > /p >

The trend of RMB to us dollar exchange rate is a two-way fluctuation process before and after P.

Before the festival, depreciation dropped to a low level of more than 6.2680 a year, but after the festival, the appreciation increased significantly, and the rate of increase was rapid. There were 400 differences between the high and low points.

Why is there such a big fluctuation? Mei Zhixin, a senior foreign exchange analyst at CITIC Bank Guangzhou branch, said in an interview with the Yangcheng Evening News reporter that this is affected by the double pressure of the end of the month and holidays.

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< p > he pointed out that on the two day of April 29th and 30th, the impact of the end of the month was mainly due to the purchase of foreign exchange by the imported oil or bulk commodities enterprises at the end of the month. This inevitably increased the demand for the US dollar in the market, plus the factors of the May 1 holiday, and the demand for foreign exchange buying was more prosperous, which all contributed to the rise in the exchange rate.

By the end of May 1 holiday, the demand for foreign exchange purchases decreased or even disappeared at the end of the month. In turn, some export enterprises received some foreign exchange during the festival, which needed to be sold after the holidays, which was opposite to the direction before the festival, so there was a marked decline in the US dollar exchange rate on Monday and Tuesday.

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In addition to P, he also believes that 6.2680 of the exchange rate at the end of April is a low point in the renminbi over the past year. It is not ruled out that some exporters will take the initiative to sell the US dollar when they see this position relatively satisfactory.

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< p > "in the future, the supply and demand relationship between the" a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" RMB "/a" and "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "dollar" /a "will gradually increase the impact on exchange rate fluctuations.

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< p > strong > long term appreciation or < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > devaluation < /a > < /strong > /p >

< p >, then, in the medium to long term, is the RMB exchange rate rising or depreciated? < /p >

"P" is different from the previous industry generally optimistic about the appreciation of the renminbi, some institutions believe that the renminbi will depreciate in the next two years.

Analysts at big and capital markets believe that the fall in the renminbi has just begun and will fall further by 8% in the next two years.

The market pressure has always been heavy, and it seems likely to increase.

It is expected that by the end of this year and 2015, the US dollar will reach 6.5 and 6.83 respectively.

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< p > however, more views still seem to be focused on "long-term appreciation of short-term devaluation".

According to Mei Zhixin, the RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar in February, with a decrease of 3.5%, which is an amendment to the unilateral appreciation in the past few years.

This amendment has weakened the expectation of RMB appreciation unilaterally, but this is not a long-term look at the renminbi, but a short-term bearish.

In six months or a longer period, the RMB is still on the rise.

"In the long run, China is still in a favorable balance of trade, and its economic growth is maintained at around 7%. Under such circumstances, the renminbi has no strong reason to depreciate.

Though not necessarily back to the beginning of the year, it is possible to slow down. "

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< p > Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shenyang Wanguo Securities, also pointed out that the exchange rate mechanism was dominated by the government in the past, and the future will be mainly based on the market. Whether it is exchange rate or interest rate, the market will play an increasingly important role.

"The exchange rate depends on the relative economic growth and the demand for money. China's relatively high growth and the acceleration of RMB internationalization decide that the RMB will continue to appreciate."

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