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Exchange Rate Volatility Is Hard To Change. Long Term Foreign Trade Is Subject To Multiple Impacts.

2014/4/6 18:08:00 26

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The depreciation of the P in the first quarter of this year is not accidental. Many analysts believe that the underlying factors behind the current weakening of the RMB exchange rate are related to the poor fundamentals of China's economy, especially the monthly trade deficit and hot money outflow in February. Haitong Securities said that the trade deficit of 23 billion US dollars in February showed that the hot money outflow was the real reason for the depreciation of the exchange rate in February. 
 indeed, this year's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > economic data < /a > in 1 and February this year is not ideal. No matter foreign trade, investment or consumption, the increase in the first two months of this year is the lowest in recent years, or even a 5 year low. The real estate sales data are even negative growth. Moreover, the profit growth of industrial enterprises has also dropped to the single digit for the first time in one year, the lowest in a year, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing. Despite the signs of steady improvement since March, the PMI data released by the National Bureau of statistics on Tuesday rose slightly, but the market is generally not optimistic about the economic growth of the first quarter. At present, the market generally forecasts that the economic growth in the first quarter will be below 7.5%. 
 at the same time, the latest fed interest rate results show that the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates ahead of schedule and the further improvement of US economic data in the two quarter will support the US dollar strength. The weakness of the US dollar in the early stage may come to an end, and the US dollar has entered a strong position. 
 these international and domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > economic factors < /a > have all caused the depreciation of the RMB in the first quarter and broke the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB. This is not a bad thing. The two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is a normal market, which is conducive to accelerating the marketization of the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, we can see that the central bank has lost no time to expand the volatility of the renminbi, showing that the central bank recognised the two-way fluctuation of the RMB. 
Wu Xiaoling, vice chairman of the finance and Economic Commission of the people's Congress and former vice governor of the people's Bank of China, said in a high-level forum on China's development recently: "the RMB has entered a stage of two-way fluctuation, and all enterprises and banks should have the awareness of locking risks, so we should better use hedging tools." 
The advantage of RMB P depreciation is beneficial to foreign trade, and some foreign trade enterprises have increased their orders. Many foreign trade enterprises in Zhejiang, Guangdong and other manufacturing industries such as clothing, textiles and home appliances have gradually reflected that, due to the constraints of foreign trade environment and cost pressure, small and medium-sized enterprises have run difficulties and even reached the brink of bankruptcy. The devaluation market gave them a "breathing space". If the European and American orders are calculated, the continued depreciation of the RMB will increase the profits of these enterprises 1%-2%. 
 however, the impact of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign trade < /a > is not only a question of exchange rate. The director of the Wealth Management Research Department of UBS, chief China investment strategist Gao Ting, recently interviewed by our reporter, said that in other countries, when the economy was relatively weak and the cost of labor rose slowly, China's wages rose very rapidly in recent years, with an increase of over 10%, resulting in an increase in the cost of enterprises, which would weaken the competitiveness of exports. From the exchange rate point of view, the yuan appreciated against the US dollar last year. However, the currency of many countries was depreciated against the US dollar. Moreover, the impact of exchange rate on exports is lagging behind, so this year, Chinese enterprises have a lot of pressure on exports. Of course, with the depreciation of the RMB and the improvement of the US economy, the two quarter is expected to improve. 
According to the report issued by Deutsche Bank, based on the assumption that China's export growth will accelerate this year, it will continue to maintain a forecast of RMB appreciation against the US dollar this year by 2%-2.5%. That is to say, the RMB exchange rate has entered a two-way equilibrium stage, but not to the stage of long-term depreciation. Fluctuations are a normal market behavior, and the renminbi still exists in the medium and long-term appreciation basis.