Lin Shuhui: RMB Devaluation Is Difficult To Stop.

With the depreciation of the renminbi in the first quarter of this year, a foreign bank researcher in Shanghai said that the rate of return on arbitrage has fallen to around -5%. Even so, Lin Shuhui believes that at present, overseas financial institutions are still fully interested in Renminbi spot debt and are still in a state where demand exceeds supply.

　　 Relying on distribution capabilities

Reporters learned that underwriting Offshore renminbi In terms of the amount and amount of bonds, DBS bank ranked twentieth in 2012. As of the first quarter of this year, the DBS bank rankings have risen to third, second only to Standard Chartered and HSBC.

In Lin Shuhui's view, the ranking of DBS bank is coming from behind. The important advantage lies in its strong distribution ability. In March of this year, DBS bank, as the leading underwriter of China Eastern Airlines [0.41% fund research report, helped Donghang overseas (Hongkong) limited issue a 2 billion 500 million and 3 year RMB dim sum debt. In January, DBS also served as an independent account manager of the offshore RMB bond of 2 billion yuan.

"Regardless of the first or two tier market, DBS bank has strong customer resources in the Asian region. The sales team maintains close contacts with many Asset Management Co. It includes not only well-known investment companies, but also private investors with low profile but strong backgrounds. She said. For example, the sales team can thoroughly understand the needs of fund managers, and fully communicate the investment stories of debt issuing enterprises with investors.

This is enough to meet the financing needs of companies that face cash shortages and are constrained by local high financing costs while having the opportunity to get loose offshore RMB bond policy support. Because these companies tend to issue offshore renminbi bonds, which can use offshore renminbi bonds to finance products and services from overseas markets, and can also be used to repay foreign debt.

In the above-mentioned Eastern Air dim sum debt, the subscription amount is close to 4 billion 300 million yuan, with a total of 92 accounts, of which 99% of Asian investors and 1% of European investors. From the perspective of investor type, 51% are banks, 26% are Asset Management Co, 12% are private banks, 8% are sovereign investment / agents, and the remaining 3% come from enterprise funds.

Although the renminbi has been weakening in recent years, it is still in China. bond market There are some default risk events, but Lin Shuhui said offshore renminbi bond market will continue to be active this year. Generally speaking, overseas investors' demand for Renminbi denominated goods still exceeds supply.

"Because the utilization rate of overseas renminbi is increasing, most of the demand comes from trade. Taking Singapore as an example, after RMB clearing capacity, the growth rate of RMB trade financing demand reached 25% in 2013, and the total Singapore total increased to 300 billion yuan. She said.

　　 RMB Arbitrage returns -5%

Entering the 2014, the sudden devaluation of the RMB made many overseas financial institutions unprepared. In the first quarter of this year, the spot depreciation of the renminbi decreased by 2.64%, especially in February. Reporters learned that overseas investors have gradually removed the expectation of RMB appreciation from the considerations of investment point debt.

Recently, the data collected by Morgan Stanley and Depository Trust and Clearing Corp showed that in 2014, in the $332 billion scale of the bet investment in Renminbi appreciation and the Chinese company's benchmark forward contract investment in the scale of US $150 billion, the total loss due to the depreciation of the RMB amounted to US $5 billion 500 million.

"Now the rate of return of RMB as arbitrage currency is the worst stage." A foreign investment analyst in Shanghai told reporters that the current rate of arbitrage in Renminbi is about -5%, and that the rate of appreciation of the RMB is up to 5% at the end of 2013 to January this year, when the arbitrage of RMB is the most profitable stage.

Lin Shuhui served as managing director of DBS bank risk management department for 6 years. From the point of view of risk management, she said, first of all, against the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, the management of DBS bank and the board of directors had agreed in advance to manage transactions in a certain range of fluctuation.

Second, for customers, DBS bank will help customers monitor accounts and hedge risks. "This will not carry out speculation in large transactions to ensure that enterprises are in a certain risk range." She said.

But Lin Shuhui believes that from the long-term demand, the RMB will still have a trend of appreciation, but the range of fluctuation will be greater. Judging from the current market situation, the interest of the institutions in Renminbi debt is still sufficient, and the demand is greater than the supply.

Last year, the global offshore RMB bonds issued amounted to 263 billion yuan. In the first two months of this year, the figure has reached 107 billion yuan. DBS bank predicts that by the end of this year, this figure will exceed 300 billion yuan. In addition, RMB bonds issued before 91 billion yuan will be refinancing this year to provide continuous supply for the market.

"The circulation in the first two months has reached 50% last year, so the demand for the market is still adequate, even though the impact of the depreciation of the RMB has not been great impact on the market." Lin Shuhui thinks.