Foreign Trade Enterprises: The Exchange Rate Is Not Strong Enough To Catch Up With Dan Dadan.

The reform of China's exchange rate system has taken a big step just after the "two sessions" of P.

The central bank [micro-blog] announced that since March 17th, the floating rate of RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market has expanded from 1% to 2%.

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< p > the expansion of exchange rate volatility is the first foreign trade industry to bear the brunt.

Several export enterprises considered that exchange rate fluctuations would lead to unanticipated exchange losses, and enterprises would not dare to take longer orders, and the profits of enterprises would be damaged in the near future.

But in the long run, it will be good. After the internationalization of RMB, the currency will be freely convertible and the cost of capital will be reduced.

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In the 1 and February, the foreign trade data in P and the continued depreciation of the RMB have brought an opportunity to the reform.

The central bank also made clear in its report that the RMB exchange rate does not exist on the basis of substantial appreciation or depreciation.

Two way fluctuations will be normal, and the risk of this round of reform is relatively small.

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< p > an insider who is close to the central bank introduces that the short-term goal is to establish a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

In the long run, the reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism will eventually achieve the free convertibility of RMB and form a market determined RMB exchange rate mechanism.

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< p > < strong > worries of foreign trade enterprises < /strong > < /p >

All foreign exchange enterprises are worried about the P.

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< p > "although foreign trade enterprises welcome devaluation very much, the most desirable thing is exchange rate stability, which is good for orders."

Xiao Junqing, general manager of Wenzhou Erie Textile Co., Ltd., said that the appreciation of RMB exceeded 3% last year. Although the strategy has been adopted to reduce exports, the company's exchange losses still amounted to several million yuan last year.

At present, the two-way fluctuation and exchange rate of exchange rate increase. If exchange rate hedging is not carried out, exchange rate fluctuations will cause unanticipated exchange losses.

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< p > "don't dare to take too long a list. If the exchange rate changes after six months, the loss of exchange rate will be lost."

The director of an electronics factory in Shenzhen also said so.

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< p > small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises have the same concerns. Xie Chi, Secretary General of Shunde SME Promotion Association, told our reporter that if the exchange rate floating space is bigger, enterprises will not be able to judge the future price at any time when they export.

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Zhang Wenpei, vice director of Mei Fu Precision Manufacturing (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., told reporters that the company's exports amounted to about 20000000 yuan a year, while its net profit in 2013 was only 800 thousand yuan, with a profit margin of less than 5%.

The recent depreciation rate of RMB is about 3%, which means that every export of 1 million yuan will increase revenue by more than 3000 yuan. In a year, there will be 60 thousand yuan of income, if the appreciation is the opposite.

Therefore, the floating rate of exchange rate will increase and the profits of small enterprises will be swallowed up.

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< p > big foreign companies are better at dealing with risks.

Peng Qinwen, vice president of Shenzhen Jiawei photovoltaic lighting Limited by Share Ltd, told reporters that the company is mainly for retailers in the United States. The exchange rate is usually around three or four months, and the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar will not affect the whole year.

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P, an insider of the Ministry of Commerce, said that foreign exchange reform will really increase the pressure on enterprises. Last year, the Ministry of Commerce made a survey, and more than 80% of enterprises wanted to maintain exchange rate stability.

But in fact, as long as the import and export enterprises carry out appropriate exchange rate risk management, most of them will be able to digest risks. The Ministry of Commerce will also guide enterprises to avoid exchange rate risks.

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< p > < strong > the opportunity of reform is < /strong > < /p >.

The low P foreign trade situation provides an opportunity for < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > "/a".

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< p > 1-2 months this year, China's foreign trade import and export data declined sharply, especially the negative growth of exports.

The General Administration of Customs believes that this is related to seasonal factors of traditional Spring Festival and will return to normal track after March.

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Xiao Zeng, manager of logistics company of Futian port in Shenzhen, P, told reporters that it is obvious that the market has improved since March.

The competent authorities believe that it is necessary to wait for the 3 and April data to be released before we can judge the foreign trade situation.

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< p > from the perspective of the reform process, the floating rate of RMB exchange rate is gradually expanding.

In 1994, the floating rate of the RMB exchange rate was 0.3%, widened to 0.5% in 2007 and expanded to 1% in 2012. Up to now, the floating rate has been over 2 years.

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< p > in fact, the central bank's move to expand the floating range of the RMB exchange rate is not surprising.

Policy makers put forward the need to increase exchange rate flexibility for a long time, and last year the central bank has repeatedly considered the expansion of the exchange rate floating range. After a steady appreciation for a long period of time, since the middle of February, the RMB has been unexpectedly warming and depreciating against the US dollar, which has strengthened the anticipation of further market reform.

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< p > the people close to the central bank told this reporter that the two main factors might be considered in the introduction of the foreign exchange reform at this time. First, the domestic economy is relatively weak in recent years, and it does not support the continued strengthening of the renminbi. Otherwise, it will strike too much on China's exports and affect the achievement of the annual economic growth target. In addition, in order to curb the inflow of hot money, if there is always the expectation of RMB appreciation and the central bank's indifference, it will make hot money carefree into the country and further promote the appreciation of the renminbi.

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< p > Zhou Xianping, assistant dean and associate professor of the school of finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, also believes that this move is in line with market expectations, marking a step forward in the marketization of the RMB exchange rate. It is an important measure for policy makers to reform in the financial field, and the RMB exchange rate has entered a period of dual volatility.

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< p > "for foreign trade enterprises, if holding foreign currency assets or liabilities, the expansion of exchange rate fluctuation range also indicates that the risk of enterprises is increasing, which requires enterprises to pay more attention to the awareness and level of foreign exchange risk management."

Zhou Xianping said.

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< p > the central bank said that under the current monetary system with floating exchange rate in major currencies, all kinds of enterprises will inevitably face changes in exchange rates between local currencies and other currencies.

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Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, P, said that enhancing exchange rate flexibility and promoting the formation of RMB exchange rate rise, demotion and fluctuation is a favorable trend under the changes of macroeconomic conditions such as the slowdown of China's economy and the decrease of the balance of payments surplus.

The volatility of the exchange rate of 2% will not have a significant impact on enterprises and financial institutions.

But it will help enterprises and financial institutions to enhance their sense of risk and actively use all kinds of tools to manage exchange rate risk.

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< p > < strong > continue to appreciate or depreciate? < /strong > < /p >

< p > recently RMB continued to < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > depreciation > /a >, and this year's foreign trade growth target was set at 7.5%, which is 0.5% lower than that of 2013. This also indicates that the judgement of the whole year's foreign trade situation is not optimistic, and the future trend of RMB will become more complicated.

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< p > "the recent devaluation is precisely the performance of the market, and the unilateral rise and fall are not normal."

Peng Qinwen believes that the most important thing for enterprises to resist is the continued appreciation of the renminbi, which makes the raw materials more and more expensive, while the overseas prices can not be improved.

But in the long run, the trend of RMB appreciation will not change, because China's economic growth rate can be maintained at 7%, which is very high in the global perspective, and still attractive to global capital inflows. Foreign trade enterprises must gradually pform and expand domestic sales.

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At the same time, UBS China does not think that the RMB will depreciate significantly. P

Although China's current account surplus is lower than before, it is still impressive, and there is still a large net inflow of foreign investment, and a significant spread between the offshore and offshore markets should still attract capital into China.

Even if foreign exchange flows out at a certain point in time, China's foreign exchange reserves of more than 3 trillion and 800 billion dollars will relieve the pressure of RMB depreciation.

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< p > in fact, in the previous announcement, the < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > the central bank < /a > clearly pointed out that the RMB exchange rate did not exist on the basis of substantial appreciation or depreciation.

If the exchange rate fluctuates exceptions, the people's Bank of China will also implement the necessary regulation and management to maintain the normal fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.

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Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular press conference in March 18th that the effective exchange rate of RMB, compiled by the bank for International Settlements, showed that in January 2014, the effective exchange rate of the RMB appreciated by 2.03%, which continued to appreciate rather than depreciate. The real effective exchange rate can fully reflect the exchange rate movements faced by foreign trade enterprises. P

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< p > "like exporting devaluation, importing preferring some appreciation, doing foreign trade with investment, doing foreign investment and making use of foreign capital, all parties have different views on advantages and disadvantages of appreciation and depreciation."

Shen Danyang said that as a competent commercial department, the Ministry of Commerce will strive to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

At the same time, we should actively expand the use of RMB in the field of foreign trade and economic cooperation, and help enterprises avoid exchange rate risks.

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